Using agent-based modelling to simulate social-ecological systems across scales

Using agent-based modelling to simulate social-ecological systems across scales
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使用基于代理的建模来模拟跨尺度的社会生态系统

DOI:
10.1007/s10707-018-00337-8
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发表时间:
2019
期刊:
影响因子:
2
通讯作者:
Lippe M
Lippe M
中科院分区:
计算机科学4区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Lippe M

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基于主体的建模(ABM)基于个体行为者或行为者群体的决策和行动,以及它们之间以及与生态系统之间的相互作用来模拟社会生态系统(SES)。许多ABM研究集中在村庄,农村景观,城镇或城市的规模。当考虑一个地理,空间明确的域,目前的ABM架构一般是不容易翻译到一个区域或全球范围内,也不承认SES跨尺度的相互作用充分;模型的范围通常是由务实的考虑,这可能会很好地跨越动态边界。除少数例外情况外,在代表政府作为代理人时,不包括政府的内部结构。这部分是由于缺乏关于如何代表这些行为者的理论,因为他们在社会变革产生重大影响的典型时间尺度上不是静态的。此外,相关的分析规模往往不是事先已知的,而是动态确定的,本身可能随时间和情况而变化。反弹道导弹系统需要跨越微观行为者与大规模环境、基础设施和政治系统之间的差距,使现实的空间和时间现象得以出现;这对于在一个全球危机可由少数微观行为者引发的时代,模型对政策分析的有用性至关重要。我们的目标是提出实施ABM以模拟跨尺度SES的概念途径,以及为此目的使用来自社会调查,遥感或其他来源的大数据。
Agent-based modelling (ABM) simulates Social-Ecological-Systems (SESs) based on the decision-making and actions of individual actors or actor groups, their interactions with each other, and with ecosystems. Many ABM studies have focused at the scale of villages, rural landscapes, towns or cities. When considering a geographical, spatially-explicit domain, current ABM architecture is generally not easily translatable to a regional or global context, nor does it acknowledge SESs interactions across scales sufficiently; the model extent is usually determined by pragmatic considerations, which may well cut across dynamical boundaries. With a few exceptions, the internal structure of governments is not included when representing them as agents. This is partly due to the lack of theory about how to represent such as actors, and because they are not static over the time-scales typical for social changes to have significant effects. Moreover, the relevant scale of analysis is often not known a priori, being dynamically determined, and may itself vary with time and circumstances. There is a need for ABM to cross the gap between micro-scale actors and larger-scale environmental, infrastructural and political systems in a way that allows realistic spatial and temporal phenomena to emerge; this is vital for models to be useful for policy analysis in an era when global crises can be triggered by small numbers of micro-level actors. We aim with this thought-piece to suggest conceptual avenues for implementing ABM to simulate SESs across scales, and for using big data from social surveys, remote sensing or other sources for this purpose.
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