Ecological risk assessment based on freshwater consumption dynamic analysis of Xiamen City, China
Ecological risk assessment based on freshwater consumption dynamic analysis of Xiamen City, China
复制标题
基于厦门市淡水消耗动态分析的生态风险评估
DOI：
10.1080/13504509.2017.1412368
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发表时间：
2018-07
影响因子：
5.6
通讯作者：
Qian Yao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Qiu Quanyi;Zhao Fangqi;Qian Yao
淡水是城市的生命线。当淡水供应能力和需求不平衡时，就会出现城市供水短缺和生态损失。因此，迫切需要对城市淡水消费风险进行系统研究。科学认识城市用水风险，有助于有效利用淡水资源，保障城市稳定和可持续发展。以厦门市为研究区域，采用城市生态风险多层次表征方法、逐步回归分析和灰色预测模型，对2020年和2030年淡水消费情景的生态风险进行了评价。评价结果表明，厦门市淡水消费量与总人口、农作物种植面积、第二产业比重、生活污水处理率高度相关。在2020年和2030年的情景中，预计厦门市的淡水消耗量将增加。同时，随着水利设施的建设，厦门市的淡水供应能力将大大提高。因此，2020年和2030年情景中淡水消费的生态影响处于中等和低水平。在这项研究中，本文所描述的城市生态风险的多层次表征方法的有效性已被证实。然而，情景概率的计算是该方法框架中的一个难题，未来的研究应该解决这个问题。
Freshwater is the lifeline of a city. Shortages in urban water supply and ecological losses occur when freshwater supply capacity and demand are imbalanced. Therefore, systematic research on the risk of freshwater consumption in urban areas is urgently demanded. A scientific understanding of the risk of urban water consumption will contribute to the efficient use of freshwater resources and ensure the stability and sustainable development of cities. Taking Xiamen City as the study area, we evaluated the ecological risk of freshwater consumption scenarios in the years 2020 and 2030 using a multilevel characterization method for urban ecological risk, stepwise regression analysis, and a gray prediction model. The results of our evaluation show that freshwater consumption in Xiamen is highly correlated with the total population, the crop acreage, the proportion of secondary industry, and the treatment rate of domestic sewage. In the 2020 and 2030 scenarios, freshwater consumption in Xiamen City is predicted to increase. Meanwhile, with the construction of water conservancy facilities, the supply capacity of freshwater in Xiamen City will be greatly improved. Therefore, the ecological impacts of freshwater consumption in the 2020 and 2030 scenarios were at the middle and low levels. In this study, the validity of the multilevel characterization method described herein for urban ecological risk has been confirmed. However, calculation of scenario probability is a difficult problem in the framework of this method, and future research should address this issue.
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影响因子：
2.7
作者：
Carla Rodriguez-Sanchez;Francisco J. Sarabia-Sánchez
通讯作者：
Carla Rodriguez-Sanchez;Francisco J. Sarabia-Sánchez
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2002
期刊：
Journal of Natural Resources
影响因子：
--
作者：
Zhu Yi-zhong
通讯作者：
Zhu Yi-zhong
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2010
期刊：
Resources Science
影响因子：
--
作者：
L. Rui
通讯作者：
L. Rui
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2003
期刊：
Arid Land Geography
影响因子：
--
作者：
Zuo Qi-ting
通讯作者：
Zuo Qi-ting
DOI：
--
发表时间：
1991
期刊：
--
影响因子：
--
作者：
厦门经济特区年鉴编辑委员会;厦门市统计局;国家统计局厦门调查队
通讯作者：
厦门经济特区年鉴编辑委员会;厦门市统计局;国家统计局厦门调查队