The first two leading modes of the tropical Pacific and their linkage without global warming
The first two leading modes of the tropical Pacific and their linkage without global warming
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热带太平洋的前两种主导模式及其在没有全球变暖的情况下的联系
DOI：
10.26464/epp2019019
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发表时间：
2019-03
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Li Minggang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li Yang;Chen Quanliang;Liu Xiaoran;Xing Nan;Cheng Zhigang;Cai Hongke;Zhou Xin;Chen Dong;Wu Xiaofei;Li Minggang
20世纪80年代以来的观测资料表明，热带太平洋海温距平（SSTA）的前两个主要经验正交函数（ESTA）模态之间存在差异。代表厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）的EOF 1模态是一个稳健的结果。然而，EOF 2在不同时期表现为El Nino Modoki（EM）或ENSO演变，这可能与全球变暖的影响有关。根本的问题是，如果没有全球变暖，热带太平洋的EOF 2模式将是什么。利用CMIP 5前工业化情景排除全球变暖的影响，我们发现热带太平洋SSTA的EOF 1模态代表ENSO，EOF 2模态不是EM。根据ENSO模态与EOF 2模态之间的超前滞后关系，这两个模态之间的联系是：... El Nino → EOF 2 → La Nina → -EOF 2 → El Nino...通过分析海表温度、海面风场和次表层海温距平的演变，我们发现ENSO和EOF 2模态的联系机制是与ENSO循环相关的海气相互作用。这一结果表明，EOF 2模式代表了ENSO演变的一个方面，在前工业条件下。因此，本研究进一步表明，EM可能是由于全球变暖的影响。
A discrepancy remains in the first two leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) based on observations since the 1980s. The EOF1 mode, representing the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is a robust result. However, the EOF2 features either El Nino Modoki (EM) or ENSO evolution during different periods, which is probably associated with the impacts of global warming. The underlying question is what the EOF2 mode of the tropical Pacific would be without global warming. Using the CMIP5 preindustrial scenario to exclude the influence of global warming, we find that the EOF1 mode of the tropical Pacific SSTA represents ENSO and that the EOF2 mode is not EM. According to the lead–lag correlation between the ENSO and EOF2 modes, the linkage between these two modes is as follows: …El Nino → EOF2 → La Nina → –EOF2 → El Nino…. By analyzing the evolution of sea surface temperature, surface wind, and subsurface ocean temperature anomalies, we find the mechanism linking the ENSO and EOF2 modes is the air–sea interaction associated with the ENSO cycle. This result suggests that the EOF2 mode represents an aspect of ENSO evolution under preindustrial conditions. Therefore, this study further indicates that the EM is probably due to the influence of global warming.
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影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Wenjun Zhang;F. Jin;A. Turner
通讯作者：
Wenjun Zhang;F. Jin;A. Turner
影响因子：
6.3
作者：
F. Xie;J. Li;W. Tian;Juan Feng;Y. Huo
通讯作者：
F. Xie;J. Li;W. Tian;Juan Feng;Y. Huo
影响因子：
--
作者：
Zhang, Wenjun;Li, Jianping;Zhao, Xia
通讯作者：
Zhao, Xia
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Jin, FF;An, SI;Zhao, JX
通讯作者：
Zhao, JX
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
H. Weng;S. Behera;T. Yamagata
通讯作者：
H. Weng;S. Behera;T. Yamagata