Introducing driving-force information increases the predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation
Introducing driving-force information increases the predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation
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引入驱动力信息提高了北大西洋涛动的可预测性
DOI：
10.1080/16742834.2019.1628608
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发表时间：
2019-06
影响因子：
2.3
通讯作者：
Yang Peicai
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Pan Xinnong;Wang Geli;Yang Peicai
北大西洋涛动（NAO）是北方半球最显著的大气变率模态。由于北大西洋涛动与欧亚、北大西洋、北美等区域气候的密切关系，提高北大西洋涛动的预报水平已引起人们的广泛关注。以前的研究，侧重于NAO的可预测性往往是基于气候模式的模拟。本文利用慢特征分析方法从NAO指数中提取驱动力信息，并将其引入相空间重构。通过计算最大李雅普诺夫指数发现，当考虑NAO指数的驱动力信号时，NAO指数的可预报性显著提高。此外，作者进行了短期预测的NAO的混沌时间序列的全局预测模型，其中包括驱动力信息。结果表明，NAO的预测技巧可以大大提高。此外，小波分析结果表明，NAO的驱动力信号与三个基本驱动因子有关：年周期（1.02年）、准两年振荡（QBO）（2.44年）和太阳周期（11.6年），这表明QBO和太阳活动在NAO的可预报性中起着关键作用。图形摘要
ABSTRACT The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the most prominent mode of atmospheric variability in the Northern Hemisphere. Because of the close relationship between the NAO and regional climate in Eurasia, North Atlantic, and North America, improving the prediction skill for the NAO has attracted much attention. Previous studies that focused on the predictability of the NAO were often based upon simulations by climate models. In this study, the authors took advantage of Slow Feature Analysis to extract information on the driving forces from daily NAO index and introduced it into phase-space reconstruction. By computing the largest Lyapunov exponent, the authors found that the predictability of daily NAO index shows a significant increase when its driving force signal is considered. Furthermore, the authors conducted a short-term prediction for the NAO by using a global prediction model for chaotic time series that incorporated the driving-force information. Results showed that the prediction skill for the NAO can be largely increased. In addition, results from wavelet analysis suggested that the driving-force signal of the NAO is associated with three basic drivers: the annual cycle (1.02 yr), the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) (2.44 yr), and the solar cycle (11.6 yr), which indicates the critical roles of the QBO and solar activities in the predictability of the NAO. Graphical abstract
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