Estimating the risk of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) death during the course of the outbreak in the Republic of Korea, 2015.
Estimating the risk of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) death during the course of the outbreak in the Republic of Korea, 2015.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ijid.2015.08.005
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发表时间：
2015-10
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Nishiura H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mizumoto K;Saitoh M;Chowell G;Miyamatsu Y;Nishiura H
2015年5月至7月在大韩民国观察到大规模MERS集群。考虑到从发病到死亡的时间延迟，估计了MERS死亡的风险。韩国的估计CFR与20%一致，这是继发性病例中已发表的估计值之一。估计的病死率随时间而下降，可能是由于在暴发过程中增加了病例确诊。2015年5月至7月，韩国发生了与医疗环境相关的大规模中东呼吸综合征（MERS）。本研究旨在通过适当考虑从发病到死亡的时间延迟来估计病死率（CFR）。然后，我们将我们的估计值与先前公布的MERS CFR值进行比较，即，20%和40%。大韩民国MERS暴发的发病和死亡日期摘自二级数据来源。利用已知的从发病到死亡的时间分布和积分方程模型，我们估计了韩国集群的MERS死亡延迟调整风险。我们对韩国MERS疫情CFR的最新估计为20.0%（95%置信区间（CI）：14.6，26.2）。在暴发过程中，真实的病死率估计值似乎有所下降，并明显低于40%。韩国的MERS死亡风险与已发表的CFR一致。随着时间的推移，估计值下降，可能是由于时间依赖性增加的情况下确认。由于从发病到死亡的时间延迟，累积死亡与病例的粗比率低估了MERS死亡的实际风险。
A large cluster of MERS was observed from May to July 2015 in the Republic of Korea. Accounting for the time delay from illness onset to death, the risk of MERS death was estimated. The estimated CFR in Korea was consistent with 20%, one of published estimates among secondary cases. The estimated CFR decreased with time, perhaps due to increased case ascertainment during the course of outbreak. A large cluster of the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) linked to healthcare setting occurred from May to July 2015 in the Republic of Korea. The present study aimed to estimate the case fatality ratio (CFR) by appropriately taking into account the time delay from illness onset to death. We then compare our estimate against previously published values of the CFR for MERS, i.e., 20% and 40%. Dates of illness onset and death of the MERS outbreak in the Republic of Korea were extracted from secondary data sources. Using the known distribution of time from illness onset to death and an integral equation model, we estimated the delay-adjusted risk of MERS death for the South Korean cluster. Our most up-to-date estimate of CFR for the MERS outbreak in South Korea was estimated at 20.0% (95% confidence intervals (CI): 14.6, 26.2). During the course of the outbreak, estimate of the CFR in real time appeared to have decreased and become significantly lower than 40%. The risk of MERS death in Korea was consistent with published CFR. The estimate decreased with time perhaps due to time-dependent increase in case ascertainment. Crude ratio of cumulative deaths to cases underestimates the actual risk of MERS death because of time delay from illness onset to death.
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影响因子：
56.3
作者：
Cauchemez, Simon;Fraser, Christophe;Van Kerkhove, Maria D.;Donnelly, Christi A.;Riley, Steven;Rambaut, Andrew;Enouf, Vincent;van der Werf, Sylvie;Ferguson, Neil M.
通讯作者：
Ferguson, Neil M.
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Nishiura H;Klinkenberg D;Roberts M;Heesterbeek JA
通讯作者：
Heesterbeek JA
影响因子：
5
作者：
Wong, Jessica Y.;Wu, Peng;Cowling, Benjamin J.
通讯作者：
Cowling, Benjamin J.
DOI：
10.1056/nejmoa1306742
发表时间：
2013-08-01
期刊：
The New England journal of medicine
影响因子：
--
作者：
Assiri A;McGeer A;Perl TM;Price CS;Al Rabeeah AA;Cummings DA;Alabdullatif ZN;Assad M;Almulhim A;Makhdoom H;Madani H;Alhakeem R;Al-Tawfiq JA;Cotten M;Watson SJ;Kellam P;Zumla AI;Memish ZA;KSA MERS-CoV Investigation Team
通讯作者：
KSA MERS-CoV Investigation Team
影响因子：
5
作者：
Day, T;Park, A;Wu, JH
通讯作者：
Wu, JH