Containment, Contact Tracing and Asymptomatic Transmission of Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19): A Modelling Study.
Containment, Contact Tracing and Asymptomatic Transmission of Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19): A Modelling Study.
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DOI：
10.3390/jcm9103125
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发表时间：
2020-09-27
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Nishiura H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kinoshita R;Anzai A;Jung SM;Linton NM;Miyama T;Kobayashi T;Hayashi K;Suzuki A;Yang Y;Akhmetzhanov AR;Nishiura H
当出现新的传染病时，加强接触者追踪和隔离，以防止重大流行病，事实上，它们在控制严重急性呼吸综合征(SARS)和中东呼吸综合征(MERS)方面取得了成功，这两种疾病已大大减少，而不会造成全球大流行。考虑到无症状和无症状的感染对新型冠状病毒病(新冠肺炎)来说是实质性的，预防这一重大流行病的可行性受到了质疑。使用两类分支过程模型，本研究通过计算发生重大流行病的概率来评估遏制新冠肺炎的可行性。我们指出，如果有相当数量的无症状传播，在没有额外干预措施的情况下，通过接触者追踪和病例隔离手段切断传播链将是非常具有挑战性的，尤其是，未追踪的病例有助于降低遏制的可行性。即使在症状出现后迅速隔离有症状的病例，也只能防止症状出现后的二次传播。
When a novel infectious disease emerges, enhanced contact tracing and isolation are implemented to prevent a major epidemic, and indeed, they have been successful for the control of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), which have been greatly reduced without causing a global pandemic. Considering that asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic infections are substantial for the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), the feasibility of preventing the major epidemic has been questioned. Using a two-type branching process model, the present study assesses the feasibility of containing COVID-19 by computing the probability of a major epidemic. We show that if there is a substantial number of asymptomatic transmissions, cutting chains of transmission by means of contact tracing and case isolation would be very challenging without additional interventions, and in particular, untraced cases contribute to lowering the feasibility of containment. Even if isolation of symptomatic cases is conducted swiftly after symptom onset, only secondary transmissions after the symptom onset can be prevented.
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