Commuting in metapopulation epidemic modeling.
Commuting in metapopulation epidemic modeling.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-021-94672-w
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发表时间：
2021-07-26
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Ben-Horin Y
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lipshtat A;Alimi R;Ben-Horin Y
COVID-19大流行导致世界各地的当局在国家和国际范围内实施旅行限制。了解这种限制的影响，需要分析通勤的作用，并要求一个集合种群建模，结合本地，社区内感染和不同地点之间的人口交换。标准的集合种群模型被表述为马尔可夫过程，因此它们不会根据个体的原始位置来标记个体。然而，从家到工作和向后（反向通勤）的通勤是主要的交通模式。因此，能够准确地模拟通勤对流行病传播的影响非常重要。在这项研究中，我们开发了一种方法来模拟个人的双向通勤，而不单独跟踪每个人，也不需要扩散的车厢数量超出了流行病学模型所定义的。我们使用以色列国的城市地图来演示该方法。所提出的算法不需要任何特殊的计算资源，它可以作为基础的干预策略检查在不同的复杂度和分辨率水平。我们展示了如何将流行病学模型纳入集合种群通勤方案，同时保留流行病学建模的内部逻辑。该方法是通用的，独立于所考虑的流行病学模型的细节。
The COVID-19 pandemic led authorities all over the world to imposing travel restrictions both on a national and on an international scale. Understanding the effect of such restrictions requires analysis of the role of commuting and calls for a metapopulation modeling that incorporates both local, intra-community infection and population exchange between different locations. Standard metapopulation models are formulated as markovian processes, and as such they do not label individuals according to their original location. However, commuting from home to work and backwards (reverse commuting) is the main pattern of transportation. Thus, it is important to be able to accurately model the effect of commuting on epidemic spreading. In this study we develop a methodology for modeling bidirectional commuting of individuals, without keeping track of each individual separately and with no need of proliferation of number of compartments beyond those defined by the epidemiologic model. We demonstrate the method using a city map of the state of Israel. The presented algorithm does not require any special computation resources and it may serve as a basis for intervention strategy examination in various levels of complication and resolution. We show how to incorporate an epidemiological model into a metapopulation commuting scheme while preserving the internal logic of the epidemiological modeling. The method is general and independent on the details of the epidemiological model under consideration.
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影响因子：
1.4
作者：
Keeling, M
通讯作者：
Keeling, M
影响因子：
3.5
作者：
Brauer, Fred
通讯作者：
Brauer, Fred
影响因子：
44.1
作者：
Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo;Castellano, Claudio;Vespignani, Alessandro
通讯作者：
Vespignani, Alessandro
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
Balcan, Duygu;Goncalves, Bruno;Hu, Hao;Ramasco, Jose J.;Colizza, Vittoria;Vespignani, Alessandro
通讯作者：
Vespignani, Alessandro
DOI：
10.1098/rspa.1927.0118
发表时间：
1927-08-01
期刊：
PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF LONDON SERIES A-CONTAINING PAPERS OF A MATHEMATICAL AND PHYSICAL CHARACTER
影响因子：
--
作者：
Kermack, WO;McKendrick, AG
通讯作者：
McKendrick, AG