Modelling land system evolution and dynamics of terrestrial carbon stocks in the Luanhe River Basin, China: a scenario analysis of trade-offs and synergies between sustainable development goals.
Modelling land system evolution and dynamics of terrestrial carbon stocks in the Luanhe River Basin, China: a scenario analysis of trade-offs and synergies between sustainable development goals.
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DOI：
10.1007/s11625-021-01004-y
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发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
Barrett B
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Xu J;Renaud FG;Barrett B
更全面地了解土地利用和土地覆盖（LULC）将有助于最大限度地减少权衡，最大限度地发挥协同效应，并改善未来的土地利用管理战略，以实现可持续发展目标（sdg）。然而，目前对未来LULC变化的评估很少关注对商品和服务的多重需求，这与可持续发展目标及其目标之间的协同效应和权衡有关。本文应用cloondo和InVEST模型，探讨了滦河流域土地系统（土地覆盖和土地利用强度组合）在2030年的演变轨迹，以及该流域可能面临的主要挑战。结果表明，在所有四种情景下，LRB都可能经历农业集约化和城市增长。历史趋势情景下的耕地强度和城市增长率远高于有更多规划干预的情景（扩张、可持续和保护）。除非森林面积和生物多样性保护目标得以实现（保护情景），否则预计到2030年森林面积将减少。结果表明：到2030年，在所有情景下，LRB的水资源短缺都有可能增加，碳储量在保护情景下增加，而在所有其他情景下减少。我们的方法框架和研究结果可以指导长江三角洲和中国其他大流域的区域可持续发展，并将对在次国家级尺度上实现可持续发展目标的政策和规划有价值。在线版本包含补充材料，可在10.1007/s11625-021-01004-y获得。
A more holistic understanding of land use and land cover (LULC) will help minimise trade-offs and maximise synergies, and lead to improved future land use management strategies for the attainment of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, current assessments of future LULC changes rarely focus on the multiple demands for goods and services, which are related to the synergies and trade-offs between SDGs and their targets. In this study, the land system (combinations of land cover and land use intensity) evolution trajectories of the Luanhe River Basin (LRB), China, and major challenges that the LRB may face in 2030, were explored by applying the CLUMondo and InVEST models. The results indicate that the LRB is likely to experience agricultural intensification and urban growth under all four scenarios that were explored. The cropland intensity and the urban growth rate were much higher under the historical trend (Trend) scenario compared to those with more planning interventions (Expansion, Sustainability, and Conservation scenarios). Unless the forest area and biodiversity conservation targets are implemented (Conservation scenario), the forest areas are projected to decrease by 2030. The results indicate that water scarcity in the LRB is likely to increase under all scenarios, and the carbon storage will increase under the Conservation scenario but decrease under all other scenarios by 2030. Our methodological framework and findings can guide regional sustainable development in the LRB and other large river basins in China, and will be valuable for policy and planning purposes to the pursuance of SDGs at the sub-national scale. The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11625-021-01004-y.
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期刊：
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