Estimating the Effects of Public Health Measures by SEIR(MH) Model of COVID-19 Epidemic in Local Geographic Areas.
Estimating the Effects of Public Health Measures by SEIR(MH) Model of COVID-19 Epidemic in Local Geographic Areas.
复制标题
通过 SEIR(MH) 模型估计当地地理区域 COVID-19 疫情公共卫生措施的效果
DOI：
10.3389/fpubh.2021.728525
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Brusic V
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Qiu T;Xiao H;Brusic V
2020-21年度的COVID-19疫情对全球公共卫生系统构成重大挑战。流行病的数学模型是评估形势和为有关当局提供决策支持的有用工具。我们开发并实施了SEIR（MH）模型，该模型扩展了传统的SEIR模型，其中包含定义公共封锁（封锁的级别和开始）和医疗系统容纳患者的能力的参数。对人口规模和年龄结构相似但公共卫生系统不同的欧洲四个地区进行了比较建模：巴登-符滕贝格、伦巴第、比利时和瑞士。模型表明，控制疫情最有效的措施是早期封锁（指数效应），其次是可用病床数量（如果能力不足，则为线性效应，当能力充足时，收益递减）。动态管理封锁级别可能比严格封锁产生更好的结果。
The COVID-19 pandemic of 2020–21 has been a major challenge to public health systems worldwide. Mathematical models of epidemic are useful tools for assessment of the situation and for providing decision-making support for relevant authorities. We developed and implemented SEIR(MH) model that extends the conventional SEIR model with parameters that define public lockdown (the level and start of lockdown) and the medical system capacity to contain patients. Comparative modeling of four regions in Europe that have similar population sizes and age structures, but different public health systems, was performed: Baden-Württemberg, Lombardy, Belgium, and Switzerland. Modeling suggests that the most effective measure for controlling epidemic is early lockdown (exponential effect), followed by the number of available hospital beds (linear effect if the capacity is insufficient, with diminishing returns when the capacity is sufficient). Dynamic management of lockdown levels is likely to produce better outcomes than strict lockdown.
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影响因子：
158.5
作者：
Li, Qun;Guan, Xuhua;Feng, Zijian
通讯作者：
Feng, Zijian
DOI：
10.1056/nejmoa1411100
发表时间：
2014-10-16
期刊：
The New England journal of medicine
影响因子：
--
作者：
WHO Ebola Response Team;Aylward B;Barboza P;Bawo L;Bertherat E;Bilivogui P;Blake I;Brennan R;Briand S;Chakauya JM;Chitala K;Conteh RM;Cori A;Croisier A;Dangou JM;Diallo B;Donnelly CA;Dye C;Eckmanns T;Ferguson NM;Formenty P;Fuhrer C;Fukuda K;Garske T;Gasasira A;Gbanyan S;Graaff P;Heleze E;Jambai A;Jombart T;Kasolo F;Kadiobo AM;Keita S;Kertesz D;Koné M;Lane C;Markoff J;Massaquoi M;Mills H;Mulba JM;Musa E;Myhre J;Nasidi A;Nilles E;Nouvellet P;Nshimirimana D;Nuttall I;Nyenswah T;Olu O;Pendergast S;Perea W;Polonsky J;Riley S;Ronveaux O;Sakoba K;Santhana Gopala Krishnan R;Senga M;Shuaib F;Van Kerkhove MD;Vaz R;Wijekoon Kannangarage N;Yoti Z
通讯作者：
Yoti Z
DOI：
10.1126/science.aaa4339
发表时间：
2015-03-13
期刊：
Science (New York, N.Y.)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Heesterbeek H;Anderson RM;Andreasen V;Bansal S;De Angelis D;Dye C;Eames KT;Edmunds WJ;Frost SD;Funk S;Hollingsworth TD;House T;Isham V;Klepac P;Lessler J;Lloyd-Smith JO;Metcalf CJ;Mollison D;Pellis L;Pulliam JR;Roberts MG;Viboud C;Isaac Newton Institute IDD Collaboration
通讯作者：
Isaac Newton Institute IDD Collaboration
DOI：
10.2307/2981576
发表时间：
1984-01-01
影响因子：
2
作者：
MILLER, AJ
通讯作者：
MILLER, AJ
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Perelson, AS;Neumann, AU;Ho, DD
通讯作者：
Ho, DD