In the mind of the market: theory of mind biases value computation during financial bubbles.
In the mind of the market: theory of mind biases value computation during financial bubbles.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.neuron.2013.07.003
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发表时间：
2013-09-18
期刊：
影响因子：
16.2
通讯作者：
Camerer C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
De Martino B;O'Doherty JP;Ray D;Bossaerts P;Camerer C
心理理论（Theory of Mind，简称ToM）是一种能够推断其他主体意图的能力，它赋予了个体在社会情境中的强大优势。在这里，我们表明，当人们与金融市场等复杂的现代机构互动时，ToM也可能适应不良。我们测试了投资于实验性泡沫市场的参与者，在这种情况下，资产的价格远远高于其基本价值。我们描述了一种机制，通过这种机制，在背内侧前额叶皮层中计算的社会信号会影响腹内侧前额叶皮层中的价值计算，从而增加了个人“乘坐”金融泡沫和赔钱的倾向。这些区域计算一个金融指标，该指标指示订单流强度的变化，促使对其他交易者意图的推断。我们的研究结果表明，在复杂的金融市场中进行价值判断时，对他人意图的推断可能会导致市场泡沫的形成。心理理论在金融市场等复杂机构中可能不适应背内侧前额叶皮层偏置腹内侧前额叶皮层的信号这两个区域都计算金融指标信号，从而推断他人的意图可能导致市场泡沫德马蒂诺证明，推断他人意图和精神状态的能力当人们与金融市场等复杂的现代机构互动时，心理理论（theory of mind）会使评估产生偏差，从而导致经济泡沫的形成。
The ability to infer intentions of other agents, called theory of mind (ToM), confers strong advantages for individuals in social situations. Here, we show that ToM can also be maladaptive when people interact with complex modern institutions like financial markets. We tested participants who were investing in an experimental bubble market, a situation in which the price of an asset is much higher than its underlying fundamental value. We describe a mechanism by which social signals computed in the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex affect value computations in ventromedial prefrontal cortex, thereby increasing an individual’s propensity to ‘ride’ financial bubbles and lose money. These regions compute a financial metric that signals variations in order flow intensity, prompting inference about other traders’ intentions. Our results suggest that incorporating inferences about the intentions of others when making value judgments in a complex financial market could lead to the formation of market bubbles. Theory of mind can be maladaptive in complex institutions like financial markets Dorsomedial prefrontal cortex biases signals in ventromedial prefrontal cortex Both regions compute financial metric signals Incorporating inferences about the intentions of others could lead to market bubbles De Martino demonstrates that the ability to infer the intentions and mental states of other individuals (“theory of mind”) biases evaluation when people interact with complex modern institutions like financial markets, contributing to the formation of economics bubbles.
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影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Hare, Todd A.;Camerer, Colin F.;Rangel, Antonio
通讯作者：
Rangel, Antonio
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0711099105
发表时间：
2008-05-06
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Hampton, Alan N.;Bossaerts, Peter;O'Doherty, John P.
通讯作者：
O'Doherty, John P.
影响因子：
16.2
作者：
Boorman, Erie D.;Behrens, Timothy E. J.;Rushworth, Matthew F. S.
通讯作者：
Rushworth, Matthew F. S.
DOI：
10.1146/annurev.financial.102708.141514
发表时间：
2009-01-01
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Bossaerts, Peter
通讯作者：
Bossaerts, Peter
DOI：
10.3758/bf03195496
发表时间：
2003-02-01
期刊：
BEHAVIOR RESEARCH METHODS INSTRUMENTS & COMPUTERS
影响因子：
--
作者：
DeCarlo, LT
通讯作者：
DeCarlo, LT