Can commercial trade represent the main indicator of the COVID-19 diffusion due to human-to-human interactions? A comparative analysis between Italy, France, and Spain.
Can commercial trade represent the main indicator of the COVID-19 diffusion due to human-to-human interactions? A comparative analysis between Italy, France, and Spain.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envres.2021.111529
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发表时间：
2021-10
影响因子：
8.3
通讯作者：
Zanoletti A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bontempi E;Coccia M;Vergalli S;Zanoletti A
本研究的主要目的是分析商业贸易与社会流行病严重程度之间的关系，以支持解释COVID-19传播动力学的新假设，并促进科普未来类似COVID-19流行病的政策应对。这项研究考虑了贸易在国家内部和国家之间流行病扩散动态中的作用，这在这一新兴研究领域尚未得到研究。我们关注欧洲的三个大国：意大利、法国和西班牙。该分析在区域层面进行（共涉及52个欧洲地区）。研究结果表明，贸易与疫情严重程度之间的关联似乎得到了经验证据的支持，这使得引入新的假设来解释COVID-19在国家内部和国家之间的传播动态成为可能。特别是，国际贸易数据被认为是反映人口密度、经济活力和人员流动性的综合指标。同样在多元背景下进行的统计分析有力地支持了这一假设，并表明危机管理必须首先关注发生在国界之外的感染，以科普新一波COVID-19和未来类似流行病/大流行病的大流行威胁。
The main goal of this study is to analyze the relation between commercial trade and pandemic severity in society, in order to support new hypotheses which can explain transmission dynamics of COVID-19, as well as promote policy responses to cope with future epidemics similar to COVID-19. This study considers the role of trade in the dynamics of pandemic diffusion, within and between countries, which has not been investigated yet in this emerging field of research. We focus on three large countries in Europe: Italy, France, and Spain. The analysis is performed at regional level (involving in total 52 European regions). Results suggest that the association between trade and pandemic severity seems to be supported by empirical evidence, making it possible to introduce new hypotheses for explaining transmission dynamics of COVID-19 within and between countries. In particular, international trade data is supposed to be used as a comprehensive indicator accounting for population density, economic dynamism, and human mobility. The statistical analyses, also in a multivariate context, strongly support this hypothesis and suggest that crisis management has to focus in the very first place on infections occurring outside the national boundaries, in order to cope with pandemic threat of new waves of COVID-19 and future similar epidemics/pandemics.
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影响因子：
82.9
作者：
Adam, Dillon C.;Wu, Peng;Cowling, Benjamin J.
通讯作者：
Cowling, Benjamin J.
影响因子：
8.3
作者：
Bontempi, E.
通讯作者：
Bontempi, E.
DOI：
10.1007/s11356-020-11662-7
发表时间：
2021-04
期刊：
Environmental science and pollution research international
影响因子：
--
作者：
Coccia M
通讯作者：
Coccia M
影响因子：
8.3
作者：
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通讯作者：
Bontempi E
影响因子：
16.6
作者：
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通讯作者：
Rinaldo, Andrea