How external trade reshapes air pollutants emission profile of an urban economy: A case study of Macao

How external trade reshapes air pollutants emission profile of an urban economy: A case study of Macao
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对外贸易如何重塑城市经济的空气污染物排放状况:以澳门为例

DOI:
10.1016/j.ecolind.2018.06.057
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发表时间:
2018-11
影响因子:
6.9
通讯作者:
Chen Hui
Chen Hui
中科院分区:
环境科学与生态学2区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Li Jiashuo;Shi Mengmeng;Cai Peng;Campos Byron Alej;ro Galvez;Song Xihao;Chen B.;Yang Qing;Chen Hui

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对外贸易已被证实对典型的异养型城市经济体的环境排放有很大影响。但是,对外贸易中所体现的大气污染物变化趋势如何变化,影响大气污染物变化的关键因素是什么等问题的答案还有待进一步探索。基于此,本文以澳门为例,首先研究了5种重要空气污染物(即,在多区域投入产出分析的基础上,分析了对外贸易所体现的SO2、PM10、NMVOC、NOX和CO等5种主要大气污染物排放量,并利用动态回归模型分析了主要贸易因素对大气污染物排放的影响。结果表明,澳门通过增加净进口避免了大量的大气污染物排放,表明直接减排是通过将排放密集型产业转移到其他地区实现的。具体而言,进口空气污染物排放量从2000年的1.61E +05吨增加到2013年的2.77E +05吨。此外,体现在出口中的大气污染物排放量从2000年的1.60E +05 t增加到2013年的2.53E +05 t,其中博彩业占主导地位。另一方面,动态回归结果显示,澳门的空气污染物排放总量与人均GDP增长和进口增长均呈正相关关系,而出口增长等因素有助于减少澳门的空气污染物排放。因此,本研究从本地及全球的角度,提出一套相关的空气污染减排策略。
External trade has been approved to greatly affect environmental emissions by typical heterotrophic urban economies. However, the answers to questions such as how the trend of air pollutant embodied in external trade changes and what are the key influential factors need further exploration. Given that, using Macao as a case study, this paper first investigates the temporal evolution of 5 important air pollutants (i.e., SO2, PM10, NMVOC, NOX, and CO) emissions embodied in external trade based on the multi-regional input-output analysis, and then dissects the effects of key trade factors on air pollutant emissions by using the dynamic regression model. The results show that large amounts of air pollutants emissions have been avoided in Macao via increasing net imports, indicating that the direct emission reduction is achieved by transferring the emission-intensive industries to other regions. Specifically, the air pollutants emissions embodied in imports increased from 1.61E+05 t in 2000 to 2.77E+05 t in 2013. Besides, the air pollutants emissions embodied in exports increase from 1.60E+05 t in 2000 to 2.53E+05 t in 2013, dominated by gaming industry. On the other hand, the dynamic regression results reveal that there is a positive correlation between the total embodied emissions and both the growth of GDP per capita and imports, while factors such as exports growth can help decrease Macao’s air pollutants emissions. Hence, a set of relevant air-pollution abatement strategies from both the local and global perspectives are proposed in this study.
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