Data Mining Climate Variability as an Indicator of U.S. Natural Gas.
Data Mining Climate Variability as an Indicator of U.S. Natural Gas.
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DOI：
10.3389/fdata.2019.00020
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
Wang SS
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Stuivenvolt-Allen J;Wang SS
异常寒冷的冬季伴随着极端风暴，由于对供暖和发电的需求增加，天然气（NG）市场受到压力。虽然长期天气预报已成为天然气管理的一个指标，但季节性（2-3个月）预测可以减轻极端冬季对消费者和工业天然气市场的影响。海洋和大气环流异常的相互关联的气候模式表现出有用的特征，发展有效的季节性展望天然气储存和消费，由于其对北美极端冬季天气的持续性和强度的影响。本研究探讨了太平洋-北美气候系统与美国天然气市场之间的联系，将宏观尺度的海洋和大气过程与区域天然气储存和消费联系起来。西太平洋海面温度和大气压力模式描述了季节性天然气储存和消费的显着变化。这些耦合的气候过程的预测是有用的，估计天然气储存和消费，这可以促进经济适应极端的冬季天气条件。了解气候变化对天然气的影响是经济适应气候变化的关键一步。
Anomalously cold winters with extreme storms strain natural gas (NG) markets due to heightened demand for heating and electricity generation. While extended weather forecasting has become an indicator for NG management, seasonal (2–3 month) prediction could mitigate the impact of extreme winters on the NG market for consumers and industry. Interrelated climate patterns of ocean and atmospheric circulation anomalies exhibit characteristics useful for developing effective seasonal outlooks of NG storage and consumption due to their influence on the persistence and intensity of extreme winter weather in North America. This study explores the connection between the Pacific-North American climate systems and the NG market in the U.S., connecting macro-scale oceanic and atmospheric processes to regional NG storage and consumption. Western Pacific sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure patterns describe significant variation in seasonal NG storage and consumption. Prediction of these coupled climate processes is useful for estimating NG storage and consumption; this could facilitate economic adaptation toward extreme winter weather conditions. Understanding the implicated impact of climate variability on NG is a crucial step toward economic adaptation to climate change.
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