Guilt status influences plea outcomes beyond the shadow-of-the-trial in an interactive simulation of legal procedures.
Guilt status influences plea outcomes beyond the shadow-of-the-trial in an interactive simulation of legal procedures.
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在交互式模拟法律程序中，有罪状态影响认罪结果，超越了审判的阴影。
DOI：
10.1037/lhb0000450
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Rabinovich, Misha
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wilford, Miko M.;Sutherland, Kelly T.;Gonzales, Joseph E.;Rabinovich, Misha
目的在美国，超过95%的刑事定罪是通过认罪获得的。我们目前对导致这么多人认罪的“交易”的理解往往与审判影子(SOT)模型捆绑在一起，该模型假设认罪结果完全取决于它们提供的惩罚差异(表示为：[审判定罪概率×审判刑期]-认罪刑期)。本研究比较了SOT模型和两个扩展模型对认罪结果的预测能力。假设我们假设SOT模型对被告是否接受认罪提议的预测能力可以通过扩展模型来提高。第一个扩展的模型增加了有罪地位的主要影响，假设无论刑罚如何，有罪的人比无辜的人更有可能接受认罪提议。第二个扩展模型增加了有罪状态和刑罚差异的交互作用：虽然差异越大，认罪真假都会增加，但这种影响在无辜者中会更大。方法我们招募了学生(N=596，45.8%女性，M=19.9岁)和非学生(N=525,451%女性，M=30.9岁)成人样本参加2(有罪状态：无辜或有罪)×3(定罪概率：20%，50%，或80%)×3(认罪折扣：6，12或18个月)混合设计。所有参与者都经历了两种相互平衡的犯罪场景。我们对每个情景的操纵变量进行随机化，让每个参与者接受18个潜在条件中的两个。结果如假设的那样，通过将SOT模型扩展到包括有罪状态-有罪参与者-被告始终比无辜的参与者-被告更有可能接受认罪提议，SOT模型的预测能力显著提高。然而，内疚状态与刑罚差异的交互作用并没有显著提高SOT模型预测认罪结果的能力。结论将内疚状态作为预测因子，可以显著提高SOT模型的预测能力。尽管在很多情况下，有罪状态是未知的，但承认有罪状态的单独影响对认罪程序具有重要的政策意义。(《心理信息数据库记录》(C)2023《行政程序法》，保留所有权利)
ObjectiveMore than 95% of criminal convictions in the United States are secured by guilty pleas. Our current understanding of the “deals” that lead so many to plead guilty is often tied to the shadow-of-the-trial (SoT) model, which posits that plea outcomes rely solely on the penalty discrepancy they offer (represented as:[trial conviction probability× trial sentence]–plea sentence). This study compared the power of the SoT model to predict plea outcomes with two expanded models.HypothesesWe hypothesized that the SoT model’s power to predict whether defendants will accept a plea offer could be improved by expanding the model. The first expanded model added a main effect of guilt status, presuming that regardless of penalty discrepancy, the guilty will be more likely to accept plea offers than the innocent. The second expanded model added an interactive effect of guilt status with penalty discrepancy: although greater discrepancies would increase both true and false guilty pleas, the magnitude of the effect would be greater among the innocent.MethodWe recruited student (N= 596, 45.8% female, M= 19.9 years old) and nonstudent (N= 525, 45.1% female, M= 30.9 years old) adult samples to participate in a 2 (guilt status: innocent or guilty)× 3 (conviction probability: 20%, 50%, or 80%)× 3 (plea discount: 6, 12, or 18 months) mixed design. All participants experienced two crime scenarios in a counterbalanced order. We randomized the manipulated variables for each scenario such that each participant was administered two of eighteen potential conditions.ResultsAs hypothesized, the predictive power of the SoT model was significantly improved by expanding it to include guilt status—guilty participant-defendants were consistently more likely to accept the plea offer than innocent participant-defendants. However, an interactive effect of guilt status with penalty discrepancy did not significantly improve the power of the SoT model to predict plea outcomes.ConclusionsThe power of the SoT model could be significantly improved by incorporating guilt status as a predictor. Although there are many times at which guilt status is unknown, the acknowledgment of a separate effect of guilt status has important policy implications for the plea process.(PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved)
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影响因子：
7.6
作者：
Avishalom Tor;Oren Gazal;Stephen M. Garcia
通讯作者：
Stephen M. Garcia
合乎逻辑但不称职的辩诉决定：基于认知理论的辩诉交易新方法
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
Rebecca K. Helm;V. Reyna
通讯作者：
V. Reyna
定罪可能性、威胁惩罚和假定角色对模拟辩诉交易决策的影响
影响因子：
2.4
作者：
K. Bordens
通讯作者：
K. Bordens
定罪概率的悖论：随着定罪风险的增加，模拟被告希望获得更好的交易。
影响因子：
2.5
作者：
Jennifer M Bartlett;Tina M. Zottoli
通讯作者：
Tina M. Zottoli
影响因子：
3.1
作者：
Lorah, Julie
通讯作者：
Lorah, Julie