Eliminating bovine tuberculosis in cattle and badgers: insight from a dynamic model.
Eliminating bovine tuberculosis in cattle and badgers: insight from a dynamic model.
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DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2015.0374
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发表时间：
2015-06-07
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Wood JL
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brooks-Pollock E;Wood JL
牛结核病（BTB）是一种多物种感染，通常影响英国的牛和獾。尽管多年的研究，獾对牛BTB发病率的影响知之甚少。使用BTB在牛和獾的双宿主传播模型，我们发现，公布的数据和参数估计是最一致的系统在控制的阈值。从牛和獾种群中获得的数据的最一致的解释包括宿主内繁殖数接近1，宿主间繁殖数约为0.05。在控制牛感染方面，减少牛与牛之间的传播至关重要。在某些地区，即使獾的流行率大幅下降，也可能对牛的感染产生适度的影响，因此有必要采取多环节的方法，直接针对獾到牛的传播。这种双宿主方法所强调的新视角为英国BTB的控制提供了见解。
Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) is a multi-species infection that commonly affects cattle and badgers in Great Britain. Despite years of study, the impact of badgers on BTB incidence in cattle is poorly understood. Using a two-host transmission model of BTB in cattle and badgers, we find that published data and parameter estimates are most consistent with a system at the threshold of control. The most consistent explanation for data obtained from cattle and badger populations includes within-host reproduction numbers close to 1 and between-host reproduction numbers of approximately 0.05. In terms of controlling infection in cattle, reducing cattle-to-cattle transmission is essential. In some regions, even large reductions in badger prevalence can have a modest impact on cattle infection and a multi-stranded approach is necessary that also targets badger-to-cattle transmission directly. The new perspective highlighted by this two-host approach provides insight into the control of BTB in Great Britain.
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