The Impact of Sea Level Rise Due to Global Warming on the Coastal Population Dynamics: A Modeling Study
The Impact of Sea Level Rise Due to Global Warming on the Coastal Population Dynamics: A Modeling Study
复制标题
全球变暖导致海平面上升对沿海人口动态的影响：建模研究
DOI：
10.1007/s41748-021-00246-1
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
7.2
通讯作者：
Takeuchi Yasuhiro
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Shukla Jang B.;Arora Maninder S.;Verma Maitri;Misra Arvind K.;Takeuchi Yasuhiro
全球变暖和海平面上升是当今世界面临的一个重大环境问题。由于陆地被淹没，海平面上升预计将改变沿海地区的人口结构，从而导致人口向内陆地区迁移。本文提出了一个数学模型来研究全球变暖和海平面上升对沿海人口动态的影响。该模型由一组微分方程组成，该方程描述了7个变量之间的动力学关系，即融化的极地冰盖和冰川的质量，海水水位，由于海水水位上升而淹没的陆地面积，非沿海和沿海人口的密度，二氧化碳浓度和平均表面温度。对模型进行了定性分析，研究了系统变量的长期行为。得到了地表温度、海水水位等模型变量稳定在平衡水平的充分条件。在不同的二氧化碳排放情景下，地表温度，海水水位和沿海人口的时间演变。进行灵敏度分析，以确定在状态变量的动态的关键参数的扰动的效果。结果发现，在参数定义的排放和去除率的变化，以及由于淹没面积的增加，沿海人口的承载能力的下降率，显着影响沿海人口动态。该研究表明，旨在限制海平面上升对沿海人口影响的政策必须侧重于减缓二氧化碳排放。
Global warming and the associated sea level rise is a major environmental issue at present time. The sea level rise is expected to change the demography of the coastal areas due to submergence of land area and thereby cause the migration of population to the inland areas. This paper presents a mathematical model to investigate the effect of global warming and the associated sea level rise on the dynamics of the coastal population. The proposed model is comprised of a set of differential equations which capture the dynamical relationship between seven variables, namely the mass of melting polar ice sheets and glaciers, the seawater level, the land area submerged due to increase in seawater level, the densities of the non-coastal and coastal populations, the carbon dioxide () concentration, and the average surface temperature. The model is analyzed qualitatively to study the long-term behavior of the variables of the system. The sufficient conditions under which surface temperature, seawater level, and other model variables settle to the equilibrium levels are derived. The time evolution of surface temperature, seawater level, and coastal population is shown in different carbon dioxide emission scenarios. The sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine the effect of perturbations in the key parameters on the dynamics of the state variables. It is found that the changes in the parameters defining the emission and removal rates of, and the declination rate of carrying capacity of the coastal population due to an increase in submerged area, significantly influence the coastal population dynamics. The study suggests that the policies aiming to limit the impact of sea level rise on coastal population must focus on mitigation of carbon dioxide emissions.
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二氧化碳与人类
影响因子：
1.6
作者：
N. D. Newell;Leslie Marcus
通讯作者：
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影响因子：
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