Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding--a global assessment.
Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding--a global assessment.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0118571
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Nicholls RJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Neumann B;Vafeidis AT;Zimmermann J;Nicholls RJ
沿海地区面临一系列沿海灾害，包括海平面上升及其相关影响。与此同时，它们的人口密度比内地高，人口增长率和城市化率也更高。由于这一趋势预计将持续到未来，我们调查了到2030年和2060年，沿海人口将如何受到全球和区域尺度的影响。从2000年的基线人口估计开始，我们根据四种不同的海平面和社会经济情景评估低海拔沿海地区未来的人口变化和100年一遇的沿海洪水的趋势。我们的方法考虑了沿海地区与内陆腹地的差异增长，以及目前观察到的城市化和城市扩张的趋势，但没有明确考虑由于海平面上升等因素可能造成的流离失所或向外迁移。我们结合联合收割机空间明确的基线人口与人口数据的估计，以获得沿海人口发展的预测。我们的情景显示，生活在低海拔沿海地区的人数以及遭受百年一遇风暴潮洪水的人数在亚洲最多。据估计，中国、印度、孟加拉国、印度尼西亚和越南在基准年的沿海人口总接触量最高，预计这一排名今后将基本保持不变。然而，预计非洲沿海地区的人口增长率和城市化率将最高，特别是在埃及以及西非和东非的撒哈拉以南国家。研究结果突出了沿海洪水风险较高的国家和地区，并有助于确定哪些地区不仅需要而且必须制定建设具有抗灾能力的沿海社区的政策和适应性规划。此外，我们确定需要进一步的研究和改进的范围，在这种基于神经网络的暴露分析。
Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential. Furthermore, we identify needs for further research and scope for improvement in this kind of scenario-based exposure analysis.
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