Warm Arctic episodes linked with increased frequency of extreme winter weather in the United States.
Warm Arctic episodes linked with increased frequency of extreme winter weather in the United States.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-018-02992-9
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发表时间：
2018-03-13
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Francis JA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cohen J;Pfeiffer K;Francis JA
最近的北方冬季表现出大规模的跷跷板温度模式，其特征是异常温暖的北极和寒冷的大陆。北极变化与北方极端天气之间是否存在任何物理联系是一个活跃的研究领域。使用最近开发的严冬天气指数，我们表明，在美国严冬天气的发生显着相关的异常泛北极位势高度和温度。随着北极从一个相对寒冷的状态过渡到一个温暖的状态，中纬度地区严冬天气的频率在过渡期间增加。然而，这种关系在美国东部最强，在美国西部沿着甚至相反。我们还表明，在近几十年的仲冬到冬末，当北极变暖趋势最大，并延伸到对流层上部和平流层下部，严重的冬季天气，包括寒冷和大雪，在美国东部变得更加频繁。加速的北极变暖是否有利于更频繁的严冬天气仍然存在争议。在这里，作者提出了一项将北极变暖与冬季恶劣天气联系起来的观测分析，表明当北极变暖时，美国东部极端天气的可能性要高出2-4倍。
Recent boreal winters have exhibited a large-scale seesaw temperature pattern characterized by an unusually warm Arctic and cold continents. Whether there is any physical link between Arctic variability and Northern Hemisphere (NH) extreme weather is an active area of research. Using a recently developed index of severe winter weather, we show that the occurrence of severe winter weather in the United States is significantly related to anomalies in pan-Arctic geopotential heights and temperatures. As the Arctic transitions from a relatively cold state to a warmer one, the frequency of severe winter weather in mid-latitudes increases through the transition. However, this relationship is strongest in the eastern US and mixed to even opposite along the western US. We also show that during mid-winter to late-winter of recent decades, when the Arctic warming trend is greatest and extends into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, severe winter weather—including both cold spells and heavy snows—became more frequent in the eastern United States. Whether accelerated Arctic warming is favorable for more frequent severe winter weather remains controversial. Here the authors present an observational analysis that links Arctic warming to severe winter weather, showing that extreme weather is 2–4 times more likely in the eastern US when the Arctic is warm.
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