Ecological niche and potential distribution of Anopheles arabiensis in Africa in 2050.
Ecological niche and potential distribution of Anopheles arabiensis in Africa in 2050.
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DOI：
10.1186/1475-2875-13-213
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发表时间：
2014-06-03
期刊：
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Beier JC
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Drake JM;Beier JC
由于室内和治疗性抗疟疾干预措施的有效性，例如驱虫蚊帐、室内蚊子滞留喷洒(IRS)、青蒿素联合治疗(ACT)和间歇推定治疗(IPT)，疟疾在非洲的未来分布可能比目前的分布更依赖于环境条件。因此，预计未来的疟疾流行病学将越来越多地由阿拉伯按蚊主导，这是一种最丰富的食外蚊子，有能力传播恶性疟原虫，并表现出广泛的地理范围。来绘制一种病毒的潜在分布。在非洲，生态位模型符合20世纪的采集记录。许多常见的物种分布建模技术旨在区分物种栖息地和环境的背景分布。由于这些方法可能导致不必要的I型和II型错误，LOBAG-OC被用于仅使用AN上的数据来识别生态位边界。阿拉比斯的发生。An的未来分布。通过将FIT模型投影到三种气候变化情景下的模拟气候变化地图上，对非洲的阿拉伯人进行了预测。生态位模型揭示了一个。阿拉比斯是一名气候通才，因为它可以出现在非洲当代环境的大部分范围内。在三种气候变化情景下，An的未来分布。预计阿拉伯减少48%-61%。基线和预测气候之间的地图差异表明，栖息地减少将在非洲西部和中部特别广泛，南部非洲的博茨瓦纳、纳米比亚和安哥拉的部分地区，以及东非的苏丹、南苏丹、索马里和肯尼亚的部分地区。东非裂谷和非洲东海岸预计仍可居住。据预测，在南苏丹、南非和安哥拉，栖息地的数量将在当前范围的边缘出现一些适度的增长。综上所述，这些结果表明，未来的潜在分布。由于气候变化，非洲的阿拉比虫很可能比当代的分布少大约一半。三种模拟情景之间的一致表明，这一结果对广泛的潜在气候未来是稳健的。
The future distribution of malaria in Africa is likely to be much more dependent on environmental conditions than the current distribution due to the effectiveness of indoor and therapeutic anti-malarial interventions, such as insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), indoor residual spraying for mosquitoes (IRS), artemisinin-combination therapy (ACT), and intermittent presumptive treatment (IPT). Future malaria epidemiology is therefore expected to be increasingly dominated by Anopheles arabiensis, which is the most abundant exophagic mosquito competent to transmit Plasmodium falciparum and exhibits a wide geographic range. To map the potential distribution of An. arabiensis in Africa, ecological niche models were fit to 20th century collection records. Many common species distribution modelling techniques aim to discriminate species habitat from the background distribution of environments. Since these methods arguably result in unnecessarily large Type I and Type II errors, LOBAG-OC was used to identify the niche boundary using only data on An. arabiensis occurrences. The future distribution of An. arabiensis in Africa was forecasted by projecting the fit model onto maps of simulated climate change following three climate change scenarios. Ecological niche modelling revealed An. arabiensis to be a climate generalist in the sense that it can occur in most of Africa’s contemporary environmental range. Under three climate change scenarios, the future distribution of An. arabiensis is expected to be reduced by 48%-61%. Map differences between baseline and projected climate suggest that habitat reductions will be especially extensive in Western and Central Africa; portions of Botswana, Namibia, and Angola in Southern Africa; and portions of Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, and Kenya in East Africa. The East African Rift Valley and Eastern Coast of Africa are expected to remain habitable. Some modest gains in habitat are predicted at the margins of the current range in South Sudan, South Africa, and Angola. In summary, these results suggest that the future potential distribution of An. arabiensis in Africa is likely to be smaller than the contemporary distribution by approximately half as a result of climate change. Agreement among the three modelling scenarios suggests that this outcome is robust to a wide range of potential climate futures.
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