Stall in fertility decline in Eastern African countries: regional analysis of patterns, determinants and implications.
Stall in fertility decline in Eastern African countries: regional analysis of patterns, determinants and implications.
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DOI：
10.1098/rstb.2009.0166
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发表时间：
2009-10-27
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Emina JO
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ezeh AC;Mberu BU;Emina JO
我们使用人口与健康调查的数据来研究四个东非国家生育率下降的停滞模式。非洲的生育率转变模式跨越各国内部的各种社会经济和地理群体，与此相反，我们发现，在所有四个国家，不同群体和区域的生育率停滞具有很强的选择性。在肯尼亚和坦桑尼亚，生育率下降在国家一级停滞不前，在一些地区，受教育程度最高的妇女的生育率继续下降。虽然乌干达的生育率在过去20年中一直保持在转型前的水平，但有迹象表明，某些妇女群体（特别是受教育程度最高的妇女、城市妇女和东部地区妇女）的生育率在下降。就津巴布韦而言，虽然生育率在全国范围内继续下降，但在中学以下教育程度的妇女和一些地区的妇女中，生育率停滞不前。我们将这些国内差异与社会经济变量、计划生育方案环境和生殖行为模式的差异变化联系起来。结果表明，避孕药具使用率下降，未满足的计划生育需求增加，对大家庭的偏好增加以及青少年生育率的增加始终与所有四个国家的亚组生育率停滞有关。这些结果与强调国家和国际对计划生育方案的承诺减少在撒哈拉以南非洲生育率转变过早停滞中所起作用的模型相一致。
We use data from the Demographic and Health Surveys to examine the patterns of stall in fertility decline in four Eastern African countries. Contrary to patterns of fertility transition in Africa that cut across various socio-economic and geographical groups within countries, we find strong selectivity of fertility stall across different groups and regions in all four countries. In both Kenya and Tanzania where fertility decline has stalled at the national level, it continued to decline among the most educated women and in some regions. While fertility has remained at pre-transition level in Uganda over the past 20 years, there are signs of decline with specific groups of women (especially the most educated, urban and those in the Eastern region) taking the lead. For Zimbabwe, although fertility has continued to decline at the national level, stall is observed among women with less than secondary education and those in some of the regions. We link these intra-country variations to differential changes in socio-economic variables, family planning programme environment and reproductive behaviour models. The results suggest that declines in contraceptive use, increases in unmet need for family planning, increasing preferences for larger families, and increases in adolescent fertility were consistently associated with stalls in subgroup fertility across all four countries. These results are consistent with models that emphasize the role of declines in national and international commitments to family planning programmes in the premature stall in sub-Saharan fertility transition.
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影响因子：
2.1
作者：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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DOI：
10.1016/j.bpobgyn.2008.11.002
发表时间：
2009-04-01
影响因子：
5.5
作者：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
7.6
作者：
Agha, S;Hutchinson, P;Kusanthan, T
通讯作者：
Kusanthan, T
影响因子：
2.5
作者：
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通讯作者：
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