Observations from the USA National Phenology Network can be leveraged to model airborne pollen

Observations from the USA National Phenology Network can be leveraged to model airborne pollen
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美国国家物候网络的观测结果可用于模拟空气中的花粉

DOI:
10.1007/s10453-022-09774-3
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发表时间:
2023
期刊:
影响因子:
2
通讯作者:
Crimmins, Theresa M.
Crimmins, Theresa M.
中科院分区:
环境科学与生态学3区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Katz, Daniel S.;Vogt, Elizabeth;Manangan, Arie;Brown, Claudia L.;Dalan, Dan;Zhu, Kai;Song, Yiluan;Crimmins, Theresa M.

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美国国家物候学网络(USA-NPN)拥有美国最大的志愿者贡献的植物物候学观测集合。花和花粉锥的这些空间和时间明确的意见,空气生物学领域的潜在贡献仍然在很大程度上未被探索。在这里,我们介绍了这个免费提供的数据集,并展示了它的应用前景建模空气中的花粉的案例研究。具体来说,我们比较了4265观察开花的橡树(栎属)树木在美国东部的冬春温度的时间。然后,我们使用这种关系来预测在15年的15个花粉监测站的开花高峰日,并将预测的开花高峰日与测量的花粉高峰日(n= 111站年)进行比较。冬春季气温与开放花朵的存在有很强的相关性(r2= 0.66,p < 0.0001),预测的开花高峰与空气中花粉浓度的高峰有很强的相关性(r2= 0.81,p < 0.0001)。这些结果证明了USA-NPN的物候观测支持基于源的空气传播花粉模型的潜力。我们还强调了利用和增强这一近实时数据集用于空气生物学应用的机会。
The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) hosts the largest volunteer-contributed collection of plant phenology observations in the USA. The potential contributions of these spatially and temporally explicit observations of flowers and pollen cones to the field of aerobiology remain largely unexplored. Here, we introduce this freely available dataset and demonstrate its prospective applications for modeling airborne pollen in a case study. Specifically, we compare the timing of 4265 observations of flowering for oak (Quercus) trees in the eastern USA to winter–spring temperatures. We then use this relationship to predict the day of peak flowering at 15 pollen monitoring stations in 15 years and compare the predicted day of peak flowering to the peak day of measured pollen (n= 111 station-years). There was a strong association between winter–spring temperature and the presence of open flowers (r2= 0.66,p< 0.0001) and the predicted peak flowering was strongly correlated with peak airborne pollen concentrations (r2= 0.81,p< 0.0001). These results demonstrate the potential for the USA-NPN’s phenological observations to underpin source-based models of airborne pollen. We also highlight opportunities for leveraging and enhancing this near real-time dataset for aerobiological applications.
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