Do changes in cigarette design influence the rise in adenocarcinoma of the lung?
Do changes in cigarette design influence the rise in adenocarcinoma of the lung?
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DOI：
10.1007/s10552-010-9660-0
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发表时间：
2011-01
影响因子：
2.3
通讯作者：
Gray, Nigel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Burns, David M.;Anderson, Christy M.;Gray, Nigel
肺腺癌的发病率正在上升，美国的发病率高于许多其他发达国家。我们研究这些趋势是否可能与香烟设计的变化有关。肺癌风险方程基于1960-1972年美国癌症协会癌症预防研究I的观察结果，应用于5年出生队列特定的吸烟行为变化估计，以预测1973-2000年期间美国白人男性肺鳞状细胞癌和腺癌的出生队列特定发病率。这些预期率与美国监测、流行病学和最终结果（SEER）数据中相同出生队列白人男性的观察率进行了比较。过去几十年来吸烟行为的变化充分解释了SEER数据中观察到的鳞状细胞癌发病率的变化。然而，如果不包括1965年后吸烟持续时间增加腺癌风险这一项，腺癌的预测发病率与观察到的SEER数据不匹配。在过去的几十年里，美国因吸烟而患鳞状细胞癌的风险似乎保持稳定；然而，腺癌的风险已显著增加，其模式与香烟设计的改变暂时相关。
Incidence rates for adenocarcinoma of the lung are increasing and are higher in the United States than in many other developed countries. We examine whether these trends may be associated with changes in cigarette design. Lung cancer risk equations based on observations during 1960–1972 from the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study I are applied to 5-year birth cohort–specific estimates of changes in smoking behaviors to predict birth cohort–specific rates of squamous cell carcinoma and adenocarcinoma of the lung among US White men for the period 1973–2000. These expected rates are compared to observed rates for the same birth cohorts of White men in the US Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data. Changes in smoking behaviors over the past several decades adequately explain the changes in squamous cell carcinoma rates observed in the SEER data. However, predicted rates for adenocarcinoma do not match the observed SEER data without inclusion of a term increasing the risk for adenocarcinoma with the duration of smoking after 1965. The risk of developing squamous cell carcinoma from smoking appears to have remained stable in the United States over the past several decades; however, the risk of adenocarcinoma has increased substantially in a pattern temporally associated with changes in cigarette design.
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