Characteristics of the 100 largest modern zoonotic disease outbreaks.
Characteristics of the 100 largest modern zoonotic disease outbreaks.
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DOI：
10.1098/rstb.2020.0535
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发表时间：
2021-11-08
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Drake JM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Stephens PR;Gottdenker N;Schatz AM;Schmidt JP;Drake JM
人畜共患疾病的暴发是对人类健康的一个重要威胁，已确认有许多驱动因素促成了其日益频繁的爆发。确定和量化人畜共患病暴发的驱动因素与暴发严重程度之间的关系，对于制定有针对性的人畜共患病监测和暴发预防战略至关重要。然而，缺乏全球范围内疫情驱动因素的定量研究。新闻自由、监测能力和纬度等国家的属性也会影响全球疫情数据。为了说明这些问题，我们回顾了全球数据集中100个最大爆发的特征（n = 4463细菌和病毒人兽共患病爆发），并将其与200个随机选择的背景对照进行比较。大规模疫情往往比背景疫情有更多的驱动因素，并与大规模环境和人口因素有关，如病媒丰度的变化、人口密度、异常天气条件和水污染。大规模疫情的病原体更可能是病毒和病媒传播的，而不是背景疫情。总体而言，我们的案例研究表明，具有数千至数百万病例的大型人畜共患病暴发的特征始终不同于更典型的暴发。我们还讨论了我们工作的局限性，希望为未来更全面的研究铺平道路。这篇文章是“传染病宏观生态学：全球寄生虫多样性和动态”主题的一部分。
Zoonotic disease outbreaks are an important threat to human health and numerous drivers have been recognized as contributing to their increasing frequency. Identifying and quantifying relationships between drivers of zoonotic disease outbreaks and outbreak severity is critical to developing targeted zoonotic disease surveillance and outbreak prevention strategies. However, quantitative studies of outbreak drivers on a global scale are lacking. Attributes of countries such as press freedom, surveillance capabilities and latitude also bias global outbreak data. To illustrate these issues, we review the characteristics of the 100 largest outbreaks in a global dataset (n = 4463 bacterial and viral zoonotic outbreaks), and compare them with 200 randomly chosen background controls. Large outbreaks tended to have more drivers than background outbreaks and were related to large-scale environmental and demographic factors such as changes in vector abundance, human population density, unusual weather conditions and water contamination. Pathogens of large outbreaks were more likely to be viral and vector-borne than background outbreaks. Overall, our case study shows that the characteristics of large zoonotic outbreaks with thousands to millions of cases differ consistently from those of more typical outbreaks. We also discuss the limitations of our work, hoping to pave the way for more comprehensive future studies. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity and dynamics across the globe’.
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影响因子：
4.4
作者：
Alsan MM;Westerhaus M;Herce M;Nakashima K;Farmer PE
通讯作者：
Farmer PE
DOI：
10.1098/rstb.2016.0083
发表时间：
2017-05-05
期刊：
Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences
影响因子：
--
作者：
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通讯作者：
Webster JP
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1006219107
发表时间：
2010-12-14
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
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通讯作者：
Brownstein, John S.
DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2009.1778
发表时间：
2010-04-22
影响因子：
4.7
作者：
Bonds, Matthew H.;Keenan, Donald C.;Sachs, Jeffrey D.
通讯作者：
Sachs, Jeffrey D.
影响因子：
2.5
作者：
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通讯作者：
Marra, Peter P.