Identifying the age cohort responsible for transmission in a natural outbreak of Bordetella bronchiseptica.
Identifying the age cohort responsible for transmission in a natural outbreak of Bordetella bronchiseptica.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.ppat.1001224
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发表时间：
2010-12-16
期刊：
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Bjørnstad ON
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Long GH;Sinha D;Read AF;Pritt S;Kline B;Harvill ET;Hudson PJ;Bjørnstad ON
需要确定疾病传播的主要途径和感染库，以增加我们对疾病动态的了解并改善疾病控制。尽管如此，传播事件很少被直接观察到。在这里，我们有独特的机会研究支气管败血博德特氏菌（一种直接传播的呼吸道病原体，具有广泛的哺乳动物宿主范围，包括人类的散发感染）在商业兔舍内的自然传播，以评估性别和年龄对其传播动态的相对影响。我们通过提出一组先验假设来做到这一点，这些假设概述了自然支气管败血性博德氏菌感染如何在兔子之间传播。我们通过使用感染力估计以及对我们兔子群体中支气管败血性伯克森氏菌年龄流行率数据的随机效应二项式回归分析来区分这些假设。感染力分析使我们能够量化支气管败血巴氏杆菌的明显患病率，同时校正年龄结构。为了确定传播主要是在社会群体内（在本例中是垃圾）还是来自外部群体，我们使用随机效应二项式回归来评估社会混合在疾病传播中的重要性。在这两种方法之间，我们的结果支持年轻断奶仔猪——而不是饲养者或母体群体——作为主要负责支气管败血病传播的年龄组。因此，在临床或农业环境中相对容易收集的年龄患病率数据可用于评估接触模式并推断可能导致直接传播感染传播的年龄群体。这些见解揭示了疾病传播的动态，并允许对有效长期疾病控制的最佳方法进行评估。对传染病传播的决定因素缺乏了解阻碍了疾病控制工作的改进。在这里，我们有独特的机会研究呼吸道病原体支气管败血博德特氏菌在商业兔子中的自然传播。支气管败血博德特氏菌是一种直接传播的革兰氏阴性细菌，属于博德特氏菌属，该属细菌还包括百日咳博德特氏菌和副百日咳博德特氏菌，它们是人类百日咳的病原体。在这项研究中，我们估计了兔子性别、年龄和社会群体对疾病传播的重要性。为此，我们首先概述了一系列关于自然支气管败血杆菌感染如何在兔子之间传播的假设。然后，我们通过使用支气管败血巴氏杆菌年龄流行率数据估计易感个体获得感染（或感染力）的比率来区分这些假设。然后使用随机效应二项式回归评估社会结构在疾病传播中的重要性。我们的结果支持年轻断奶婴儿是主要负责支气管败血病传播的年龄组，并证明易于收集的年龄流行率数据可用于推断可能导致疾病传播的年龄组。这些见解揭示了疾病传播的动态，并允许对有效疾病控制的最佳方法进行评估。
Identifying the major routes of disease transmission and reservoirs of infection are needed to increase our understanding of disease dynamics and improve disease control. Despite this, transmission events are rarely observed directly. Here we had the unique opportunity to study natural transmission of Bordetella bronchiseptica – a directly transmitted respiratory pathogen with a wide mammalian host range, including sporadic infection of humans – within a commercial rabbitry to evaluate the relative effects of sex and age on the transmission dynamics therein. We did this by developing an a priori set of hypotheses outlining how natural B. bronchiseptica infections may be transmitted between rabbits. We discriminated between these hypotheses by using force-of-infection estimates coupled with random effects binomial regression analysis of B. bronchiseptica age-prevalence data from within our rabbit population. Force-of-infection analysis allowed us to quantify the apparent prevalence of B. bronchiseptica while correcting for age structure. To determine whether transmission is largely within social groups (in this case litter), or from an external group, we used random-effect binomial regression to evaluate the importance of social mixing in disease spread. Between these two approaches our results support young weanlings – as opposed to, for example, breeder or maternal cohorts – as the age cohort primarily responsible for B. bronchiseptica transmission. Thus age-prevalence data, which is relatively easy to gather in clinical or agricultural settings, can be used to evaluate contact patterns and infer the likely age-cohort responsible for transmission of directly transmitted infections. These insights shed light on the dynamics of disease spread and allow an assessment to be made of the best methods for effective long-term disease control. A lack of understanding regarding determinants of infectious disease transmission has hindered improved disease control efforts. Here we had the unique opportunity to study the natural transmission of the respiratory pathogen Bordetella bronchiseptica within a commercial rabbitry. B. bronchiseptica is a directly transmitted gram-negative bacterium belonging to the genus Bordetella, which also comprises B. pertussis and B. parapertussis, the etiological agents of whooping cough in humans. In this study we estimated the importance of rabbit sex, age and social group on disease spread. To do this we first outlined a set of hypotheses about how natural B. bronchiseptica infections may be transmitted between rabbits. We then discriminated between these hypotheses by estimating the rate at which susceptible individuals acquire infection (or force-of-infection) using B. bronchiseptica age-prevalence data. The importance of social structure in disease spread was then evaluated using random-effect binomial regression. Our results support young weanlings as the age cohort primarily responsible for B. bronchiseptica transmission and demonstrate that easy to collect age-prevalence data can be used to infer the likely age-cohort responsible for disease transmission. Such insights shed light on the dynamics of disease spread and allow an assessment to be made of the best methods for effective disease control.
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影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Gupta, S;Ferguson, N;Anderson, R
通讯作者：
Anderson, R
影响因子：
4.5
作者：
FRIEDMAN, M
通讯作者：
FRIEDMAN, M
影响因子：
--
作者：
ANDERSON, RM;MAY, RM
通讯作者：
MAY, RM
DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2004.3050
发表时间：
2005-06-07
影响因子：
4.7
作者：
Cattadori, IM;Boag, B;Hudson, PJ
通讯作者：
Hudson, PJ
影响因子：
9.4
作者：
DEEB, BJ;DIGIACOMO, RF;SILBERNAGEL, SM
通讯作者：
SILBERNAGEL, SM