Pathogen spillover driven by rapid changes in bat ecology.
Pathogen spillover driven by rapid changes in bat ecology.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41586-022-05506-2
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发表时间：
2023-01
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Plowright, Raina K.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Eby, Peggy;Peel, Alison J.;Hoegh, Andrew;Madden, Wyatt;Giles, John R.;Hudson, Peter J.;Plowright, Raina K.
近几十年来，源于蝙蝠的病原体已成为越来越多的公共卫生问题。一个主要的挑战是确定这些病原体如何溢出到人群中，以产生大流行的威胁。许多相关性研究与土地利用或其他人为压力的变化溢出，虽然所观察到的相关性的机制尚未确定。一个限制是缺乏空间和时间上明确的数据，多重溢出，溢出，水库宿主生态和行为和病毒动力学之间的联系。我们提出了25年的数据，土地利用变化，蝙蝠的行为和亨德拉病毒从翼足类蝙蝠在亚热带澳大利亚的马溢出。这些数据表明，蝙蝠对环境变化的反应是持续采取以前对营养压力的短暂反应的行为。土地使用变化和气候之间的相互作用现在导致蝙蝠在农业地区的持续居住，定期的食物短缺会导致溢出效应。在残留的森林树木冬季开花的脉冲出现，以防止溢出。基于这些现象，我们开发了综合贝叶斯网络模型，准确地预测了25年中每一年溢出集群的存在或不存在。我们的长期研究确定了栖息地丧失，气候和溢出风险增加之间的机械联系。它提供了一个框架，研究蝙蝠病毒外溢的原因，并制定生态对策，以防止流行病。一项研究揭示了土地利用变化和气候如何相互作用，推动人畜共患病病毒的溢出，并确定了一种防止溢出的生态机制。
During recent decades, pathogens that originated in bats have become an increasing public health concern. A major challenge is to identify how those pathogens spill over into human populations to generate a pandemic threat. Many correlational studies associate spillover with changes in land use or other anthropogenic stressors, although the mechanisms underlying the observed correlations have not been identified. One limitation is the lack of spatially and temporally explicit data on multiple spillovers, and on the connections among spillovers, reservoir host ecology and behaviour and viral dynamics. We present 25 years of data on land-use change, bat behaviour and spillover of Hendra virus from Pteropodid bats to horses in subtropical Australia. These data show that bats are responding to environmental change by persistently adopting behaviours that were previously transient responses to nutritional stress. Interactions between land-use change and climate now lead to persistent bat residency in agricultural areas, where periodic food shortages drive clusters of spillovers. Pulses of winter flowering of trees in remnant forests appeared to prevent spillover. We developed integrative Bayesian network models based on these phenomena that accurately predicted the presence or absence of clusters of spillovers in each of the 25 years. Our long-term study identifies the mechanistic connections between habitat loss, climate and increased spillover risk. It provides a framework for examining causes of bat virus spillover and for developing ecological countermeasures to prevent pandemics. A study reveals how land-use change and climate interact to drive the spillover of a zoonotic virus, and identifies an ecological mechanism that prevents spillover.
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