Global trends in emerging infectious diseases.
Global trends in emerging infectious diseases.
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DOI：
10.1038/nature06536
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发表时间：
2008-02-21
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Daszak P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jones KE;Patel NG;Levy MA;Storeygard A;Balk D;Gittleman JL;Daszak P
新出现的传染病是对健康的重大威胁：艾滋病、非典型肺炎、耐药细菌和埃博拉病毒是最近的例子。这种想法认为，通过确定新出现的疾病“热点”，应该有可能在早期阶段发现健康风险并准备遏制战略。对1940年至2004年期间出现的300多个疾病实例的分析表明，可以根据社会经济、环境和生态因素准确地绘制这些热点。数据显示，监测工作以及目前的大部分研究支出都集中在发达经济体，然而风险地图指出，发展中国家更有可能是新疾病的来源。本文的在线版本（doi:10.1038/nature06536）包含补充材料，可供授权用户使用。新发传染病的起源与社会经济、环境和生态因素密切相关。本文的在线版本（doi:10.1038/nature06536）包含补充材料，可供授权用户使用。新发传染病是全球经济和公共卫生的重大负担。它们的出现被认为主要是由社会经济、环境和生态因素驱动的，但没有比较研究明确分析这些联系，以了解eid的全球时空格局。在这里，我们分析了1940年至2004年间335个EID“事件”（EID起源）的数据库，并展示了非随机的全球模式。在对报告偏差进行控制后，随着时间的推移，EID事件显著增加，其发病率高峰（在20世纪80年代）与艾滋病毒大流行同时发生。EID事件主要是人畜共患病（占EID的60.3%）：其中大多数（71.8%）起源于野生动物（例如，严重急性呼吸道病毒、埃博拉病毒），并且随着时间的推移而显著增加。我们发现54.3%的EID事件是由细菌或立克次体引起的，这反映了我们数据库中大量的耐药微生物。我们的研究结果证实，EID的起源与社会经济、环境和生态因素显著相关，并为确定新的EID最有可能起源的地区（新出现的疾病“热点”）提供了基础。它们还显示，报告力度较低的低纬度地区发生野生人畜共患病和媒介传播的eid的风险很大。我们得出的结论是，用于应对疾病出现的全球资源分配不当，大多数科学和监测工作都集中在下一个重要疾病暴发最不可能发生的国家。本文的在线版本（doi:10.1038/nature06536）包含补充材料，可供授权用户使用。
Emerging infectious diseases are a major threat to health: AIDS, SARS, drug-resistant bacteria and Ebola virus are among the more recent examples. By identifying emerging disease 'hotspots', the thinking goes, it should be possible to spot health risks at an early stage and prepare containment strategies. An analysis of over 300 examples of disease emerging between 1940 and 2004 suggests that these hotspots can be accurately mapped based on socio-economic, environmental and ecological factors. The data show that the surveillance effort, and much current research spending, is concentrated in developed economies, yet the risk maps point to developing countries as the more likely source of new diseases. The online version of this article (doi:10.1038/nature06536) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. The origins of emerging infections diseases are significantly correlated with socio-economic, environmental and ecological factors. The online version of this article (doi:10.1038/nature06536) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are a significant burden on global economies and public health. Their emergence is thought to be driven largely by socio-economic, environmental and ecological factors, but no comparative study has explicitly analysed these linkages to understand global temporal and spatial patterns of EIDs. Here we analyse a database of 335 EID ‘events’ (origins of EIDs) between 1940 and 2004, and demonstrate non-random global patterns. EID events have risen significantly over time after controlling for reporting bias, with their peak incidence (in the 1980s) concomitant with the HIV pandemic. EID events are dominated by zoonoses (60.3% of EIDs): the majority of these (71.8%) originate in wildlife (for example, severe acute respiratory virus, Ebola virus), and are increasing significantly over time. We find that 54.3% of EID events are caused by bacteria or rickettsia, reflecting a large number of drug-resistant microbes in our database. Our results confirm that EID origins are significantly correlated with socio-economic, environmental and ecological factors, and provide a basis for identifying regions where new EIDs are most likely to originate (emerging disease ‘hotspots’). They also reveal a substantial risk of wildlife zoonotic and vector-borne EIDs originating at lower latitudes where reporting effort is low. We conclude that global resources to counter disease emergence are poorly allocated, with the majority of the scientific and surveillance effort focused on countries from where the next important EID is least likely to originate. The online version of this article (doi:10.1038/nature06536) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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