Korean risk assessment model for breast cancer risk prediction.
Korean risk assessment model for breast cancer risk prediction.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0076736
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Park SK
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Park B;Ma SH;Shin A;Chang MC;Choi JY;Kim S;Han W;Noh DY;Ahn SH;Kang D;Yoo KY;Park SK
我们评估了Gail模型在韩国人群中的表现，并开发了一个韩国乳腺癌风险评估工具(KoBCRAT)，该工具基于为Gail模型开发的预测乳腺癌风险的方程。使用3789组病例和对照，确定了韩国人患乳腺癌的风险因素。个体概率是使用盖尔方程和韩国危险数据来预测的。我们比较了使用韩国发病率和死亡率数据的修正Gail模型和原始Gail模型的参数估计器产生的5年和终生风险与使用KoBCRAT产生的风险。我们使用两个韩国队列：韩国多中心癌症队列(KMCC)和国家癌症中心(NCC)队列，基于预期/观察的乳腺癌发病率和曲线下面积(AUC)来验证KoBCRAT。50岁以下的主要危险因素为家族史、初潮年龄、首次足月妊娠年龄、绝经状况、哺乳时间、口服避孕药使用情况、运动情况；50岁及以上的主要危险因素为家族史、初潮年龄、绝经年龄、妊娠经历、体重指数、口服避孕药使用情况、运动情况。修正的盖尔模型对病例的5年风险低于对照(p = 0.017)，而KoBCRAT模型对病例的5年和终生风险高于对照(分别为p<；0.001和p<；0.001)。两个队列中观察到的乳腺癌发病率与KoBCRAT的预期发病率相似(kmcc，p = 0.880；ncc，p = 0.878)。使用KoBCRAT的KMCC和NCC队列的AUC分别为0.61和0.89。我们的发现表明，KoBCRAT是预测韩国女性，特别是城市女性患乳腺癌风险的更好工具。
We evaluated the performance of the Gail model for a Korean population and developed a Korean breast cancer risk assessment tool (KoBCRAT) based upon equations developed for the Gail model for predicting breast cancer risk. Using 3,789 sets of cases and controls, risk factors for breast cancer among Koreans were identified. Individual probabilities were projected using Gail's equations and Korean hazard data. We compared the 5-year and lifetime risk produced using the modified Gail model which applied Korean incidence and mortality data and the parameter estimators from the original Gail model with those produced using the KoBCRAT. We validated the KoBCRAT based on the expected/observed breast cancer incidence and area under the curve (AUC) using two Korean cohorts: the Korean Multicenter Cancer Cohort (KMCC) and National Cancer Center (NCC) cohort. The major risk factors under the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at first full-term pregnancy, menopausal status, breastfeeding duration, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise, while those at and over the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at menopause, pregnancy experience, body mass index, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise. The modified Gail model produced lower 5-year risk for the cases than for the controls (p = 0.017), while the KoBCRAT produced higher 5-year and lifetime risk for the cases than for the controls (p<0.001 and <0.001, respectively). The observed incidence of breast cancer in the two cohorts was similar to the expected incidence from the KoBCRAT (KMCC, p = 0.880; NCC, p = 0.878). The AUC using the KoBCRAT was 0.61 for the KMCC and 0.89 for the NCC cohort. Our findings suggest that the KoBCRAT is a better tool for predicting the risk of breast cancer in Korean women, especially urban women.
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影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Jung KW;Park S;Kong HJ;Won YJ;Lee JY;Seo HG;Lee JS
通讯作者：
Lee JS
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Hong, Jae Seok;Yi, Sang-Wook;Ohrr, Heechoul
通讯作者：
Ohrr, Heechoul
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Jeon, Jei-Hun;Kang, Jung-Hyun;Park, Eun-Cheol
通讯作者：
Park, Eun-Cheol
DOI：
10.1093/jnci/djj332
发表时间：
2006-09-06
期刊：
JOURNAL OF THE NATIONAL CANCER INSTITUTE
影响因子：
--
作者：
Chen, Jinbo;Pee, David;Gail, Mitchell H.
通讯作者：
Gail, Mitchell H.
影响因子：
6.4
作者：
Lee, SY;Kim, MT;Yoon, SJ
通讯作者：
Yoon, SJ