The fate of the Caspian Sea under projected climate change and water extraction during the 21st century
The fate of the Caspian Sea under projected climate change and water extraction during the 21st century
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21 世纪预计气候变化和取水情况下里海的命运
DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/ac1af5
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Koriche S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Koriche S
里海为数百万人提供了可观的生态系统服务。仅在20世纪，它就经历了3米的水位变化。未来CS水平的强有力的情景对于告知环境风险管理和用水规划至关重要。在这项研究中，我们调查了CS流域的水收支变化及其对CS水平的潜在影响，在21世纪世纪使用预测的气候从选定的气候变化情景的共享社会经济途径（SSP）和代表性的浓度途径（RCP），并探讨了人类开采的影响。我们表明，在气候模型中规定的CS的大小决定了模拟的水预算的历史和未来的预测。大多数未来预测显示，世纪将出现干旱。极端辐射强迫情景（RCP8.5/SSP 585）和规定了更大CS的模式的水分赤字更明显。到2100年，使用RCP4.5（RCP8.5）模式发现CS水平下降了8（10）m，而对于SSP 245（SSP 585）情景模式，CS水平下降了20（30）m。在控制未来CS水平方面，水提取率与气候一样重要，可能进一步下降高达7 m，导致北方CS浅层干燥。这将对周边社区的生计产生广泛影响;增加淡水短缺的脆弱性，改变生态系统，并影响气候系统。当使用个别模型来告知政策时，应谨慎行事，因为预测的CS水平在模型之间变化很大。我们发现，许多气候模型要么忽略，或不正确规定，CS区。没有未来的气候预测包括CS表面积的任何变化，即使当集水区预计将相当干燥。气候模型中大气和湖泊之间的耦合将是捕捉关键双向反馈的重大进展。
The Caspian Sea (CS) delivers considerable ecosystem services to millions of people. It experienced water level variations of 3 m during the 20th century alone. Robust scenarios of future CS level are vital to inform environmental risk management and water-use planning. In this study we investigated the water budget variation in the CS drainage basin and its potential impact on CS level during the 21st century using projected climate from selected climate change scenarios of shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs), and explored the impact of human extractions. We show that the size of the CS prescribed in climate models determines the modelled water budgets for both historical and future projections. Most future projections show drying over the 21st century. The moisture deficits are more pronounced for extreme radiative forcing scenarios (RCP8.5/SSP585) and for models where a larger CS is prescribed. By 2100, up to 8 (10) m decrease in CS level is found using RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) models, and up to 20 (30) m for SSP245 (SSP585) scenario models. Water extraction rates are as important as climate in controlling future CS level, with potentially up to 7 m further decline, leading to desiccation of the shallow northern CS. This will have wide-ranging implications for the livelihoods of the surrounding communities; increasing vulnerability to freshwater scarcity, transforming ecosystems, as well as impacting the climate system. Caution should be exercised when using individual models to inform policy as projected CS level is so variable between models. We identify that many climate models either ignore, or do not properly prescribe, CS area. No future climate projections include any changes in CS surface area, even when the catchment is projected to be considerably drier. Coupling between atmosphere and lakes within climate models would be a significant advance to capture crucial two-way feedbacks.
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影响因子：
4
作者：
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通讯作者：
Koriche S
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
F. Wesselingh
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
Louis
通讯作者：
Louis
影响因子：
2.2
作者：
Arpe, Klaus;Leroy, Suzanne A. G.
通讯作者：
Leroy, Suzanne A. G.