Model ensembles of ecosystem services fill global certainty and capacity gaps.
Model ensembles of ecosystem services fill global certainty and capacity gaps.
复制标题
生态系统服务的模型集合填补了全球确定性和容量差距。
DOI：
10.1126/sciadv.adf5492
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发表时间：
2023-04-07
期刊：
影响因子：
13.6
通讯作者：
Bullock, James M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Willcock, Simon;Hooftman, Danny A. P.;Neugarten, Rachel A.;Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca;Barredo, Jose I.;Hickler, Thomas;Kindermann, Georg;Lewis, Amy R.;Lindeskog, Mats;Martinez-Lopez, Javier;Bullock, James M.
维持对人类福祉至关重要的生态系统服务受到许多从业者的阻碍，他们无法获得生态系统服务模型（“能力差距”）或无法了解现有模型的准确性（“确定性差距”），特别是在世界上较贫穷的地区。我们在前所未有的全球范围内为五个具有高度政策相关性的ES开发了多个模型。集成比单个模型准确2%至14%。包围准确度与研究能力的代理人没有相关性，表明准确度在地球仪中公平分布，并且研究ES能力较弱的国家不会受到准确度的惩罚。通过免费提供这些ES集成和相关的准确性估计，我们提供了全球一致的ES信息，可以支持数据可用性低或实施复杂ES模型能力低的地区的政策和决策。因此，我们希望减少阻碍地方到全球规模的ES可持续发展的能力和确定性差距。全球生态系统服务模型集合提高了准确性，填补了较不富裕地区的数据空白。
Sustaining ecosystem services (ES) critical to human well-being is hindered by many practitioners lacking access to ES models (“the capacity gap”) or knowledge of the accuracy of available models (“the certainty gap”), especially in the world’s poorer regions. We developed ensembles of multiple models at an unprecedented global scale for five ES of high policy relevance. Ensembles were 2 to 14% more accurate than individual models. Ensemble accuracy was not correlated with proxies for research capacity, indicating that accuracy is distributed equitably across the globe and that countries less able to research ES suffer no accuracy penalty. By making these ES ensembles and associated accuracy estimates freely available, we provide globally consistent ES information that can support policy and decision-making in regions with low data availability or low capacity for implementing complex ES models. Thus, we hope to reduce the capacity and certainty gaps impeding local- to global-scale movement toward ES sustainability. Global ensembles of ecosystem service models have increased accuracy and fill data gaps for less wealthy regions.
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影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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作者：
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.04.002
发表时间：
2014-05-01
影响因子：
8.9
作者：
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通讯作者：
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