Frequency-dependent selection can forecast evolution in Streptococcus pneumoniae.
Frequency-dependent selection can forecast evolution in Streptococcus pneumoniae.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pbio.3000878
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发表时间：
2020-10
期刊：
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Hanage WP
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Azarian T;Martinez PP;Arnold BJ;Qiu X;Grant LR;Corander J;Fraser C;Croucher NJ;Hammitt LL;Reid R;Santosham M;Weatherholtz RC;Bentley SD;O'Brien KL;Lipsitch M;Hanage WP
预测病原体种群随着时间的推移将如何变化是具有挑战性的。人类重要病原体肺炎链球菌和肺炎球菌结合疫苗(PCV)的情况就是如此，PCV只针对人群中的一小部分菌株。在这里，我们使用辅助基因的频率来预测接种后肺炎球菌种群的变化，假设这些频率反映了基因产物上的负频率依赖选择(NFDS)。我们发现，在引入疫苗时，通过基于NFDS的模型估计的菌株的标准化预测适合度，使我们能够预测疫苗接种后菌株的流行率是上升还是下降。此外，我们能够预测疫苗接种后的均衡人口构成，并评估新兴血统的侵袭能力。总体而言，我们提供了一种预测干预措施对肺炎球菌种群的影响的方法，并可能应用于其他以NFDS为驱动力的细菌病原体。预测病原体种群随着时间的推移将如何变化是具有挑战性的。这项研究使用一个作用于辅助基因产物的负频率依赖选择模型来预测接种后人类病原体肺炎链球菌的种群变化。
Predicting how pathogen populations will change over time is challenging. Such has been the case with Streptococcus pneumoniae, an important human pathogen, and the pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs), which target only a fraction of the strains in the population. Here, we use the frequencies of accessory genes to predict changes in the pneumococcal population after vaccination, hypothesizing that these frequencies reflect negative frequency-dependent selection (NFDS) on the gene products. We find that the standardized predicted fitness of a strain, estimated by an NFDS-based model at the time the vaccine is introduced, enables us to predict whether the strain increases or decreases in prevalence following vaccination. Further, we are able to forecast the equilibrium post-vaccine population composition and assess the invasion capacity of emerging lineages. Overall, we provide a method for predicting the impact of an intervention on pneumococcal populations with potential application to other bacterial pathogens in which NFDS is a driving force. Predicting how pathogen populations will change over time is challenging. This study predicts population changes in human pathogen Streptococcus pneumoniae after vaccination, using a model of negative frequency-dependent selection acting on accessory gene products.
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影响因子：
9.4
作者：
Burton, Robert L.;Geno, K. Aaron;Nahm, Moon H.
通讯作者：
Nahm, Moon H.
影响因子：
6.4
作者：
Gray, Penelope;Palmroth, Johanna;Lehtinen, Matti
通讯作者：
Lehtinen, Matti
影响因子：
3.6
作者：
Grijalva CG;Pelton SI
通讯作者：
Pelton SI
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Cobey, Sarah;Lipsitch, Marc
通讯作者：
Lipsitch, Marc
DOI：
10.1016/j.diagmicrobio.2014.11.006
发表时间：
2015-02-01
影响因子：
2.9
作者：
Ho, Pak-Leung;Chiu, Susan S.;Chow, Kin-Hung
通讯作者：
Chow, Kin-Hung