Evidence of anthropogenic impacts on global drought frequency, duration, and intensity.
Evidence of anthropogenic impacts on global drought frequency, duration, and intensity.
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人为对全球干旱频率、持续时间和强度影响的证据。
DOI：
10.1038/s41467-021-22314-w
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发表时间：
2021-05-12
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
AghaKouchak A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chiang F;Mazdiyasni O;AghaKouchak A
大多数气候变化检测和归因研究都集中在平均或极端温度或降水上，而忽视了对干旱特征长期变化的探索。本文提供的证据表明，人为强迫影响了相关的气象干旱特征。利用9个CMIP6模式的SPI和SPEI指数（每个模式使用3个实现），我们发现人为强迫的存在增加了美洲、非洲和亚洲大部分地区的干旱频率、最大干旱持续时间和最大干旱强度。使用单个温室气体和人为气溶胶强迫，我们还强调，这两种主要强迫之间的区域平衡有助于我们的结果中检测到的干燥模式。总体而言，我们提供了人为强迫对干旱特征影响的全面表征，为强迫在驱动干旱事件变化中的作用提供了重要视角。大多数研究都考察了人类驱动的气候变化对平均或极端气候变量的影响，而忽略了探索相关的干旱特征。在这里，作者表明，人类活动的存在增加了全球干旱事件的数量、最长时间和强度。
Most climate change detection and attribution studies have focused on mean or extreme temperature or precipitation, neglecting to explore long-term changes in drought characteristics. Here we provide evidence that anthropogenic forcing has impacted interrelated meteorological drought characteristics. Using SPI and SPEI indices generated from an ensemble of 9 CMIP6 models (using 3 realizations per model), we show that the presence of anthropogenic forcing has increased the drought frequency, maximum drought duration, and maximum drought intensity experienced in large parts of the Americas, Africa, and Asia. Using individual greenhouse gas and anthropogenic aerosol forcings, we also highlight that regional balances between the two major forcings have contributed to the drying patterns detected in our results. Overall, we provide a comprehensive characterization of the influence of anthropogenic forcing on drought characteristics, providing important perspectives on the role of forcings in driving changes in drought events. Most studies have examined the impacts of human-driven climate change on mean or extreme climate variables and have neglected to explore interrelated drought features. Here, the authors show that the presence of human activity has increased the number and maximum length and intensity of drought events across the globe.
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DOI：
10.1002/joc.3887
发表时间：
2014-08-01
期刊：
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
影响因子：
--
作者：
Begueria, Santiago;Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.;Latorre, Borja
通讯作者：
Latorre, Borja
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Bollasina, Massimo A.;Ming, Yi;Ramaswamy, V.
通讯作者：
Ramaswamy, V.
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Burke, Eleanor J.
通讯作者：
Burke, Eleanor J.
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Barnett, Tim P.;Pierce, David W.;Dettinger, Michael D.
通讯作者：
Dettinger, Michael D.
影响因子：
5.1
作者：
Eyring, Veronika;Bony, Sandrine;Taylor, Karl E.
通讯作者：
Taylor, Karl E.