Climate change vulnerability assessment of the main marine commercial fish and invertebrates of Portugal.
Climate change vulnerability assessment of the main marine commercial fish and invertebrates of Portugal.
复制标题
葡萄牙主要海洋商业鱼类和无脊椎动物的气候变化脆弱性评估。
DOI：
10.1038/s41598-021-82595-5
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发表时间：
2021-02-03
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Leitão F
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bueno-Pardo J;Nobre D;Monteiro JN;Sousa PM;Costa EFS;Baptista V;Ovelheiro A;Vieira VMNCS;Chícharo L;Gaspar M;Erzini K;Kay S;Queiroga H;Teodósio MA;Leitão F
这是首次尝试对气候变化对葡萄牙主要海洋资源的影响进行基于专家的生态脆弱性评估。根据与74种具有商业价值的鱼类和无脊椎动物的生活史和保护或开发水平有关的标准，估计了它们的脆弱性、暴露度、敏感性、适应能力和预期的定向影响。该分析分别针对葡萄牙的三个地区和两种气候变化情景（RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5）进行。为此，IPCC脆弱性评估框架的第四份评估报告与物理-生物地球化学模型的输出相结合，该模型允许通过未来环境变量的预期变异性来衡量物种的暴露。温带生态系统物种的适应能力较强，总体脆弱性得分较低，但一些迁徙物种和弹性物种的脆弱性得分最高。各区域中，中部地区的物种平均脆弱性最高，而在气候变化情景RCP 8.5下，由于预期气候变率较高，3个地区的物种脆弱性较高。这项工作为评估气候变化背景下依赖海洋资源的人类活动的脆弱性奠定了基础。
This is the first attempt to apply an expert-based ecological vulnerability assessment of the effects of climate change on the main marine resources of Portugal. The vulnerability, exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and expected directional effects of 74 species of fish and invertebrates of commercial interest is estimated based on criteria related to their life-history and level of conservation or exploitation. This analysis is performed separately for three regions of Portugal and two scenarios of climate change (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). To do that, the fourth assessment report IPCC framework for vulnerability assessments was coupled to the outputs of a physical-biogeochemical model allowing to weight the exposure of the species by the expected variability of the environmental variables in the future. The highest vulnerabilities were found for some migratory and elasmobranch species, although overall vulnerability scores were low probably due to the high adaptive capacity of species from temperate ecosystems. Among regions, the highest average vulnerability was estimated for the species in the Central region while higher vulnerabilities were identified under climate change scenario RCP 8.5 in the three regions, due to higher expected climatic variability. This work establishes the basis for the assessment of the vulnerability of the human activities relying on marine resources in the context of climate change.
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影响因子：
3.3
作者：
Bueno-Pardo, Juan;Pierce, Graham J.;Queiroga, Henrique
通讯作者：
Queiroga, Henrique
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Cinner JE;Huchery C;Darling ES;Humphries AT;Graham NA;Hicks CC;Marshall N;McClanahan TR
通讯作者：
McClanahan TR
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Foden WB;Butchart SH;Stuart SN;Vié JC;Akçakaya HR;Angulo A;DeVantier LM;Gutsche A;Turak E;Cao L;Donner SD;Katariya V;Bernard R;Holland RA;Hughes AF;O'Hanlon SE;Garnett ST;Sekercioğlu CH;Mace GM
通讯作者：
Mace GM
影响因子：
64.8
作者：
Gillooly, JF;Charnov, EL;Brown, JH
通讯作者：
Brown, JH
影响因子：
4.1
作者：
Garrido, Susana;Silva, Alexandra;Santos, A. Miguel P.
通讯作者：
Santos, A. Miguel P.