Identifying the world's most climate change vulnerable species: a systematic trait-based assessment of all birds, amphibians and corals.
Identifying the world's most climate change vulnerable species: a systematic trait-based assessment of all birds, amphibians and corals.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0065427
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Mace GM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Foden WB;Butchart SH;Stuart SN;Vié JC;Akçakaya HR;Angulo A;DeVantier LM;Gutsche A;Turak E;Cao L;Donner SD;Katariya V;Bernard R;Holland RA;Hughes AF;O'Hanlon SE;Garnett ST;Sekercioğlu CH;Mace GM
气候变化将对生物多样性产生深远影响，包括增加灭绝速度。目前量化这类影响的方法侧重于衡量气候变化的暴露程度，而在很大程度上忽视了物种之间的生物差异，这些差异可能会显著增加或减少其脆弱性。为了解决这一问题，我们提出了一个框架，用于评估气候变化脆弱性的三个维度，即敏感性、暴露和适应能力；这利用了物种的生物特征及其对预测气候变化的模拟暴露。在迄今为止规模最大的此类评估中，我们将这种方法应用于世界上每一种鸟类、两栖动物和珊瑚(16,857种)。由此产生的评估确定了最易受气候变化影响的物种及其集中的地理区域，包括亚马逊盆地的两栖动物和鸟类，以及印度-西太平洋中部(珊瑚三角)的珊瑚。我们发现，具有最高敏感性和最低适应能力特征的物种的高度集中区域与高度暴露的物种的区域不同，我们确定了仅基于暴露的评估可能高估或低估气候变化影响的区域。我们发现，在IUCN红色名录上，608-851种鸟类(6-9%)、670-933种两栖动物(11-15%)和47-73种珊瑚(6-9%)都是高度易受气候变化影响的物种，已经面临灭绝的威胁。剩下的高度易受气候变化影响的物种代表着保护的新优先事项。在IPCC SRES排放量较低的情况下，极易受到气候变化影响的物种较少，这表明减少温室气体排放将减少气候变化导致的物种灭绝。我们的研究回应了越来越多的人要求采用更具生物和生态包容性的方法来评估气候变化脆弱性的呼声。通过促进对气候变化脆弱性的三个维度的独立评估，我们的方法可以用于制定特定物种和地区的保护干预措施和指数。我们确定的优先事项将加强减轻气候变化影响的全球战略。
Climate change will have far-reaching impacts on biodiversity, including increasing extinction rates. Current approaches to quantifying such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climatic change and largely ignore the biological differences between species that may significantly increase or reduce their vulnerability. To address this, we present a framework for assessing three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, namely sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity; this draws on species’ biological traits and their modeled exposure to projected climatic changes. In the largest such assessment to date, we applied this approach to each of the world’s birds, amphibians and corals (16,857 species). The resulting assessments identify the species with greatest relative vulnerability to climate change and the geographic areas in which they are concentrated, including the Amazon basin for amphibians and birds, and the central Indo-west Pacific (Coral Triangle) for corals. We found that high concentration areas for species with traits conferring highest sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity differ from those of highly exposed species, and we identify areas where exposure-based assessments alone may over or under-estimate climate change impacts. We found that 608–851 bird (6–9%), 670–933 amphibian (11–15%), and 47–73 coral species (6–9%) are both highly climate change vulnerable and already threatened with extinction on the IUCN Red List. The remaining highly climate change vulnerable species represent new priorities for conservation. Fewer species are highly climate change vulnerable under lower IPCC SRES emissions scenarios, indicating that reducing greenhouse emissions will reduce climate change driven extinctions. Our study answers the growing call for a more biologically and ecologically inclusive approach to assessing climate change vulnerability. By facilitating independent assessment of the three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, our approach can be used to devise species and area-specific conservation interventions and indices. The priorities we identify will strengthen global strategies to mitigate climate change impacts.
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影响因子：
6.3
作者：
Geyer, Juliane;Kiefer, Iris;Ibisch, Pierre L.
通讯作者：
Ibisch, Pierre L.
干旱区耕地面积变化影响因素——以西北石羊河流域为例
影响因子：
10.3
作者：
Cannone, Nicolem;Sgorbati, Sergio;Guglielmin, Mauro
通讯作者：
Guglielmin, Mauro
DOI：
10.1002/joc.1276
发表时间：
2005-12-01
期刊：
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
影响因子：
--
作者：
Hijmans, RJ;Cameron, SE;Jarvis, A
通讯作者：
Jarvis, A
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Hoffmann, Michael;Hilton-Taylor, Craig;Stuart, Simon N.
通讯作者：
Stuart, Simon N.
影响因子：
11.6
作者：
Donner, SD;Skirving, WJ;Hoegh-Guldberg, O
通讯作者：
Hoegh-Guldberg, O