Infectious disease modelling for SARS-CoV-2 in Africa to guide policy: A systematic review.
Infectious disease modelling for SARS-CoV-2 in Africa to guide policy: A systematic review.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100610
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发表时间：
2022-09
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Thumbi, S. M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kimani, Teresia Njoki;Nyamai, Mutono;Owino, Lillian;Makori, Anita;Ombajo, Loice Achieng;Maritim, MaryBeth;Anzala, Omu;Thumbi, S. M.
关键词：
应用流行病学模型在理解疾病暴发的传播和控制方面发挥了关键作用。然而，在突发公共卫生事件期间就适当应对作出决策时，这些指标的实用性和准确性是衡量指标是否与当地数据相一致、为模型假设提供依据的证据、获得和传播其结果的速度、决策者是否易于理解以及是否愿意利用其见解的一个因素。我们对非洲的SARS-CoV-2传染病模型进行了系统评价，以确定：a）非洲SARS-CoV-2建模的空间和时间模式，B）使用当地数据校准模型和建模活动中的当地专业知识，以及c）关键建模问题和政策见解。我们根据PRISMA指南检索了PubMed、Embase、Web of Science和MedRxiv数据库，以获得一个或多个非洲国家的所有SARS-CoV-2动态建模论文。我们提取了有关研究国家、作者及其所属机构、所解决的建模问题、使用的模型类型、使用当地数据校准模型以及用于指导政策决策的模型见解的数据。共有74篇论文符合纳入标准，其中近三分之二来自6%（3）的非洲国家。最初的论文是在非洲报告第一批病例后2个月发表的，大多数论文是在第一波病例后发表的。超过一半的论文（53，78%）和（48，65%）的第一作者和最后一位作者分别隶属于非洲机构，只有12%（9）使用当地数据进行模型校准。共有60%（46）的论文模拟了控制干预措施的评估。传输速率参数被认为是驱动大多数模型的灵敏度分析中的最大不确定性。使用动态模型来得出政策见解至关重要，因此需要提高非洲大陆的建模能力。
Applied epidemiological models have played a critical role in understanding the transmission and control of disease outbreaks. Their utility and accuracy in decision-making on appropriate responses during public health emergencies is however a factor of their calibration to local data, evidence informing model assumptions, speed of obtaining and communicating their results, ease of understanding and willingness by policymakers to use their insights. We conducted a systematic review of infectious disease models focused on SARS-CoV-2 in Africa to determine: a) spatial and temporal patterns of SARS-CoV-2 modelling in Africa, b) use of local data to calibrate the models and local expertise in modelling activities, and c) key modelling questions and policy insights. We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science and MedRxiv databases following the PRISMA guidelines to obtain all SARS-CoV-2 dynamic modelling papers for one or multiple African countries. We extracted data on countries studied, authors and their affiliations, modelling questions addressed, type of models used, use of local data to calibrate the models, and model insights for guiding policy decisions. A total of 74 papers met the inclusion criteria, with nearly two-thirds of these coming from 6% (3) of the African countries. Initial papers were published 2 months after the first cases were reported in Africa, with most papers published after the first wave. More than half of all papers (53, 78%) and (48, 65%) had a first and last author affiliated to an African institution respectively, and only 12% (9) used local data for model calibration. A total of 60% (46) of the papers modelled assessment of control interventions. The transmission rate parameter was found to drive the most uncertainty in the sensitivity analysis for majority of the models. The use of dynamic models to draw policy insights was crucial and therefore there is need to increase modelling capacity in the continent.
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DOI：
10.11604/pamj.2020.36.355.24101
发表时间：
2020
期刊：
The Pan African medical journal
影响因子：
--
作者：
Okuonzi SA
通讯作者：
Okuonzi SA
DOI：
10.1126/science.abk0414
发表时间：
2021-11-19
期刊：
Science (New York, N.Y.)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Brand SPC;Ojal J;Aziza R;Were V;Okiro EA;Kombe IK;Mburu C;Ogero M;Agweyu A;Warimwe GM;Nyagwange J;Karanja H;Gitonga JN;Mugo D;Uyoga S;Adetifa IMO;Scott JAG;Otieno E;Murunga N;Otiende M;Ochola-Oyier LI;Agoti CN;Githinji G;Kasera K;Amoth P;Mwangangi M;Aman R;Ng'ang'a W;Tsofa B;Bejon P;Keeling MJ;Nokes DJ;Barasa E
通讯作者：
Barasa E
影响因子：
3.1
作者：
Baba, Isa Abdullahi;Baleanu, Dumitru
通讯作者：
Baleanu, Dumitru
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Adetokunboh OO;Mthombothi ZE;Dominic EM;Djomba-Njankou S;Pulliam JRC
通讯作者：
Pulliam JRC
影响因子：
4.1
作者：
Atangana A;İğret Araz S
通讯作者：
İğret Araz S