Toward Collaborative Adaptation: Assessing Impacts of Coastal Flooding at the Watershed Scale

Toward Collaborative Adaptation: Assessing Impacts of Coastal Flooding at the Watershed Scale
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迈向协作适应:评估流域范围内沿海洪水的影响

DOI:
10.1007/s00267-022-01759-9
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发表时间:
2023
影响因子:
3.5
通讯作者:
McLaughlin, Daniel L.
McLaughlin, Daniel L.
中科院分区:
环境科学与生态学3区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Mitchell, Allison;Bukvic, Anamaria;Shao, Yang;Irish, Jennifer L.;McLaughlin, Daniel L.

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美国大西洋中部沿海地区的单反率高于全球平均水平,特别是在弗吉尼亚州汉普顿路,该地区的单反率加速主要是由地面沉降驱动的。沿海洪水的适应计划通常是在市一级制定的,忽略了个别行政边界之外洪水的更广泛的空间影响。流域范围内的洪水影响评估将为同步邻近行政单位之间的适应工作提供更全面的视角。本文评估了汉普顿路流域中海平面上升 (SLR) 和风暴潮造成的洪水影响,以确定在不同时间范围内最容易遭受沿海洪水风险的地区。它还探讨了洪水对案例研究流域内整个地区的城市、土地利用和土地覆盖的影响。 2% 年度超额概率 (AEP) 风暴潮洪水灾害数据和 NOAA 的中间 SLR 预测用于制定 2030 年、2060 年和 2090 年的洪水情景,并描绘出面临联合洪水风险的土地区域。调查结果显示,98 个流域中有 5 个流域的洪水泛滥程度将大幅增加,其中两个流域跨越多个城市。它们还表明军事、商业和工业用地和湿地土地被严重淹没。洪水还将影响伊丽莎白河沿岸城市地区和汉普顿市的住宅用地使用,从而支持在受水文影响的空间尺度上进行协作适应规划的需要。
The U.S. Mid-Atlantic coastal region is experiencing higher rates of SLR than the global average, especially in Hampton Roads, Virginia, where this acceleration is primarily driven by land subsidence. The adaptation plans for coastal flooding are generally developed at the municipal level, ignoring the broader spatial implications of flooding outside the individual administrative boundaries. Flood impact assessments at the watershed scale would provide a more holistic perspective on what is needed to synchronize the adaptation efforts between the neighboring administrative units. This paper evaluates flooding impacts from sea level rise (SLR) and storm surge among watersheds in Hampton Roads to identify those most at risk of coastal flooding over different time horizons. It also explores the implications of flooding on the municipalities, the land uses, and land covers throughout this region within the case study watershed. The 2% Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) storm surge flood hazard data and NOAA’s intermediate SLR projections were used to develop flooding scenarios for 2030, 2060, and 2090 and delineate land areas at risk of combined flooding. Findings show that five out of 98 watersheds will substantially increase in inundation, with two intersecting multiple municipalities. They also indicate significant inundation of military, commercial, and industrial land uses and wetland land covers. Flooding will also impact residential land use in urban areas along the Elizabeth River and Hampton city, supporting the need for collaborative adaptation planning on hydrologically influenced spatial scales.
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