What is the lifetime risk of developing cancer?: the effect of adjusting for multiple primaries.
What is the lifetime risk of developing cancer?: the effect of adjusting for multiple primaries.
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DOI：
10.1038/bjc.2011.250
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发表时间：
2011-07-26
影响因子：
8.8
通讯作者：
Silcocks, P. B.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sasieni, P. D.;Shelton, J.;Ormiston-Smith, N.;Thomson, C. S.;Silcocks, P. B.
癌症的“终生风险”通常是通过将当前发病率与当前全因死亡率相结合（“当前概率”方法）来估计的，而不是通过描述出生队列的经历来估计。由于个体可能会患上不止一种类型的癌症，因此通常估计的是一生中患癌症的平均数量。这与患癌症的概率不同。我们描述了一种估计终生风险的方法，该方法可以纠正癌症登记处定期发布的发病率中包含的多种原发癌症的情况。新方法将癌症发病率应用于未患过癌症的生存概率的估计。新方法使用苏格兰癌症登记处的数据进行说明，并与使用第一次初选（未发表）数据的“黄金标准”估计进行比较。这种修正的作用是使估计的“终生风险”更小。新的估计与使用基于第一次初选的发病率获得的估计非常相似。尽管对任何单个癌症部位的校正很小，但通常的“当前概率”方法大大高估了所有癌症的终生风险。癌症终生风险的估计应基于第一次初选或应使用新方法。
The ‘lifetime risk’ of cancer is generally estimated by combining current incidence rates with current all-cause mortality (‘current probability’ method) rather than by describing the experience of a birth cohort. As individuals may get more than one type of cancer, what is generally estimated is the average (mean) number of cancers over a lifetime. This is not the same as the probability of getting cancer. We describe a method for estimating lifetime risk that corrects for the inclusion of multiple primary cancers in the incidence rates routinely published by cancer registries. The new method applies cancer incidence rates to the estimated probability of being alive without a previous cancer. The new method is illustrated using data from the Scottish Cancer Registry and is compared with ‘gold-standard’ estimates that use (unpublished) data on first primaries. The effect of this correction is to make the estimated ‘lifetime risk’ smaller. The new estimates are extremely similar to those obtained using incidence based on first primaries. The usual ‘current probability’ method considerably overestimates the lifetime risk of all cancers combined, although the correction for any single cancer site is minimal. Estimation of the lifetime risk of cancer should either be based on first primaries or should use the new method.
影响因子：
1.3
作者：
Wun, LM;Merrill, RM;Feuer, EJ
通讯作者：
Feuer, EJ
DOI：
10.1093/jnci/85.11.892
发表时间：
1993-06-02
期刊：
JOURNAL OF THE NATIONAL CANCER INSTITUTE
影响因子：
--
作者：
FEUER, EJ;WUN, LM;TONG, T
通讯作者：
TONG, T
影响因子：
2
作者：
Fay, MP;Pfeiffer, R;Feuer, EJ
通讯作者：
Feuer, EJ