Size matters: The width and location of a ureteral stone accurately predict the chance of spontaneous passage.

Size matters: The width and location of a ureteral stone accurately predict the chance of spontaneous passage.
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DOI:
10.1007/s00330-017-4852-6
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发表时间:
2017-11
期刊:
影响因子:
5.9
通讯作者:
Lidén M
Lidén M
中科院分区:
医学2区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Jendeberg J;Geijer H;Alshamari M;Cierzniak B;Lidén M

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确定如何使用诊断性非增强计算机断层扫描(NECT)中的信息最准确地预测输尿管结石自发通过的机会,并创建具有比以前可能的更小结石尺寸间隔的预测模型。回顾性分析了392例接受NECT治疗的输尿管结石患者。三名放射科医生独立测量了结石尺寸。记录结石位置、侧位、肾积水、CRP、药物排出治疗(MET)和所有随访放射学检查,直至结石排出或26周。以4周和20周时结石自发排出为因变量进行Logistic回归分析。20周内,312/392例结石自发通过,0-2 mm结石98%通过,3 mm结石98%通过,4 mm结石81%通过,5 mm结石65%通过,6 mm结石33%通过,6.5mm以上结石9%通过。结石的大小和位置预测自发性输尿管结石通过。肾积水的侧位和程度仅在特定亚组中预测结石通过。输尿管结石的自发通过可以通过NECT中可用的信息以高精度预测。我们提出了一种基于结石尺寸和位置的预测方法。非增强CT可以预测输尿管结石的结果。·结石的大小和位置是自发通过的最重要的预测因素。·介绍了基于结石宽度或长度以及结石位置的预测模型。·报告了以mm为间隔的结石尺寸的观察到的通过率。·临床医生可以做出更好的治疗决定。
To determine how to most accurately predict the chance of spontaneous passage of a ureteral stone using information in the diagnostic non-enhanced computed tomography (NECT) and to create predictive models with smaller stone size intervals than previously possible. Retrospectively 392 consecutive patients with ureteric stone on NECT were included. Three radiologists independently measured the stone size. Stone location, side, hydronephrosis, CRP, medical expulsion therapy (MET) and all follow-up radiology until stone expulsion or 26 weeks were recorded. Logistic regressions were performed with spontaneous stone passage in 4 weeks and 20 weeks as the dependent variable. The spontaneous passage rate in 20 weeks was 312 out of 392 stones, 98% in 0–2 mm, 98% in 3 mm, 81% in 4 mm, 65% in 5 mm, 33% in 6 mm and 9% in ≥6.5 mm wide stones. The stone size and location predicted spontaneous ureteric stone passage. The side and the grade of hydronephrosis only predicted stone passage in specific subgroups. Spontaneous passage of a ureteral stone can be predicted with high accuracy with the information available in the NECT. We present a prediction method based on stone size and location. • Non-enhanced computed tomography can predict the outcome of ureteral stones. • Stone size and location are the most important predictors of spontaneous passage. • Prediction models based on stone width or length and stone location are introduced. • The observed passage rates for stone size in mm-intervals are reported. • Clinicians can make better decisions about treatment.
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