School closures reduced social mixing of children during COVID-19 with implications for transmission risk and school reopening policies.
School closures reduced social mixing of children during COVID-19 with implications for transmission risk and school reopening policies.
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DOI：
10.1098/rsif.2020.0970
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发表时间：
2021-04
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Remais JV
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Head JR;Andrejko KL;Cheng Q;Collender PA;Phillips S;Boser A;Heaney AK;Hoover CM;Wu SL;Northrup GR;Click K;Bardach NS;Lewnard JA;Remais JV
关闭学校可能会缩小儿童之间的社交网络规模，从而可能限制传染病的传播。为了估计K-12关闭和重新开放政策对加州湾区儿童社会交往和COVID-19发病率的影响，我们收集了儿童社会接触的数据，并使用基于个人的模型评估了传播的影响。小学和西班牙裔儿童在关闭期间的接触次数分别比高中和非西班牙裔儿童多。我们估计，2020年春季关闭的小学在湾区避免了2167例病例（95% CI：-985，5572），少于中间值（5884; 95% CI：1478，11.550），高中（8650; 95% CI：3054，15 940）和工作场所（15 813; 95% CI：9963，22 617）关闭。在中度社区传播的假设下，我们估计在没有任何预防措施的情况下重新开放四个月的学期将增加高中教师的症状性疾病（另外40.7%的人预计会出现有症状的感染，95% CI：1.9，61.1），中学教师（37.2%，95%可信区间：4.6，58.1）和小学教师（4.1%，95%可信区间：-1.7，12.0）。然而，我们发现，小学重新开放的政策，结合联合收割机普遍掩蔽与教室队列可能会导致很少的校内传播，而高中可能需要掩蔽加上交错的混合时间表。加强社区干预措施（如远程工作、保持社交距离）降低了所有研究措施的校内传播风险，随着校内措施的有效性提高，社区传播的影响最小化。
School closures may reduce the size of social networks among children, potentially limiting infectious disease transmission. To estimate the impact of K–12 closures and reopening policies on children's social interactions and COVID-19 incidence in California's Bay Area, we collected data on children's social contacts and assessed implications for transmission using an individual-based model. Elementary and Hispanic children had more contacts during closures than high school and non-Hispanic children, respectively. We estimated that spring 2020 closures of elementary schools averted 2167 cases in the Bay Area (95% CI: −985, 5572), fewer than middle (5884; 95% CI: 1478, 11.550), high school (8650; 95% CI: 3054, 15 940) and workplace (15 813; 95% CI: 9963, 22 617) closures. Under assumptions of moderate community transmission, we estimated that reopening for a four-month semester without any precautions will increase symptomatic illness among high school teachers (an additional 40.7% expected to experience symptomatic infection, 95% CI: 1.9, 61.1), middle school teachers (37.2%, 95% CI: 4.6, 58.1) and elementary school teachers (4.1%, 95% CI: −1.7, 12.0). However, we found that reopening policies for elementary schools that combine universal masking with classroom cohorts could result in few within-school transmissions, while high schools may require masking plus a staggered hybrid schedule. Stronger community interventions (e.g. remote work, social distancing) decreased the risk of within-school transmission across all measures studied, with the influence of community transmission minimized as the effectiveness of the within-school measures increased.
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DOI：
10.1093/infdis/jiaa691
发表时间：
2021-02-13
期刊：
The Journal of infectious diseases
影响因子：
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作者：
Goldstein E;Lipsitch M;Cevik M
通讯作者：
Cevik M
DOI：
10.1001/jama.2021.0374
发表时间：
2021-03-02
期刊：
JAMA
影响因子：
--
作者：
Honein MA;Barrios LC;Brooks JT
通讯作者：
Brooks JT
影响因子：
4.3
作者：
Eames KT;Tilston NL;Brooks-Pollock E;Edmunds WJ
通讯作者：
Edmunds WJ
影响因子：
82.9
作者：
He, Xi;Lau, Eric H. Y.;Leung, Gabriel M.
通讯作者：
Leung, Gabriel M.
DOI：
10.1136/bmj.n628
发表时间：
2021-03-18
期刊：
BMJ (Clinical research ed.)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Forbes H;Morton CE;Bacon S;McDonald HI;Minassian C;Brown JP;Rentsch CT;Mathur R;Schultze A;DeVito NJ;MacKenna B;Hulme WJ;Croker R;Walker AJ;Williamson EJ;Bates C;Mehrkar A;Curtis HJ;Evans D;Wing K;Inglesby P;Drysdale H;Wong AYS;Cockburn J;McManus R;Parry J;Hester F;Harper S;Douglas IJ;Smeeth L;Evans SJW;Bhaskaran K;Eggo RM;Goldacre B;Tomlinson LA
通讯作者：
Tomlinson LA