Stabilization of global temperature at 1.5°C and 2.0°C: implications for coastal areas.
Stabilization of global temperature at 1.5°C and 2.0°C: implications for coastal areas.
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DOI：
10.1098/rsta.2016.0448
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发表时间：
2018-05-13
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Merkens JL
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Nicholls RJ;Brown S;Goodwin P;Wahl T;Lowe J;Solan M;Godbold JA;Haigh ID;Lincke D;Hinkel J;Wolff C;Merkens JL
在减少影响/适应需要和更广泛的政策影响方面，严格的沿海地区气候稳定假设情景的有效性很少受到关注。在这里，我们使用变暖酸化和海平面投影仪地球系统模型来计算1.5°C和2.0°C稳定情景下全球海平面上升（SLR）和海洋pH值预测到2300的大集合，以及参考未缓解的RCP8.5情景。这些预测的潜在后果，然后考虑全球沿海洪水，小岛屿，三角洲，沿海城市和沿海生态。在这两种稳定假设下，全球平均海洋pH值（和温度）在一个世纪内趋于稳定。这意味着避免了重大的生态系统影响，但缺乏详细的量化，反映了科学的不确定性。相比之下，单反相机只是放慢了速度，并继续到2300（及以上）。因此，虽然SLR对沿海的影响因气候稳定而大大减少，特别是在2100年之后，但潜在的影响在几个世纪内继续增长。在两种稳定情景下，2300年的SLR都超过了2100年的未缓解SLR。因此，在气候稳定的情况下，在人口密集和经济重要的沿海地区，适应仍然至关重要。鉴于这将需要采取多个适应步骤，适应途径办法对沿海地区有好处。本文是《巴黎协定：了解世界变暖比工业化前水平高1.5°C的物理和社会挑战》主题的一部分。
The effectiveness of stringent climate stabilization scenarios for coastal areas in terms of reduction of impacts/adaptation needs and wider policy implications has received little attention. Here we use the Warming Acidification and Sea Level Projector Earth systems model to calculate large ensembles of global sea-level rise (SLR) and ocean pH projections to 2300 for 1.5°C and 2.0°C stabilization scenarios, and a reference unmitigated RCP8.5 scenario. The potential consequences of these projections are then considered for global coastal flooding, small islands, deltas, coastal cities and coastal ecology. Under both stabilization scenarios, global mean ocean pH (and temperature) stabilize within a century. This implies significant ecosystem impacts are avoided, but detailed quantification is lacking, reflecting scientific uncertainty. By contrast, SLR is only slowed and continues to 2300 (and beyond). Hence, while coastal impacts due to SLR are reduced significantly by climate stabilization, especially after 2100, potential impacts continue to grow for centuries. SLR in 2300 under both stabilization scenarios exceeds unmitigated SLR in 2100. Therefore, adaptation remains essential in densely populated and economically important coastal areas under climate stabilization. Given the multiple adaptation steps that this will require, an adaptation pathways approach has merits for coastal areas. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels’.
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