Progression to pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma from pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasia: Results of a simulation model.
Progression to pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma from pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasia: Results of a simulation model.
复制标题
从胰腺内肿瘤中向胰腺导管腺癌的进展：模拟模型的结果。
DOI：
10.1016/j.pan.2018.07.009
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发表时间：
2018-12
期刊：
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Pandharipande, Pan, V
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Peters, Mary Linton B.;Eckel, Andrew;Mueller, Peter P.;Tramontano, Angela C.;Weaver, Davis T.;Lietz, Anna;Hur, Chin;Kong, Chung Yin;Pandharipande, Pan, V
为了通过建立胰腺上皮内瘤变（PanIN）进展为胰腺导管腺癌（PDAC）的校准模拟模型来深入了解PanIN病变的自然史和致癌途径，我们修改了先前验证的实体PDAC的模拟模型，校准模型以拟合来自美国国家癌症研究所的监测，流行病学，和最终结果计划以及按年龄划分的PanIN患病率的已发表文献。我们估计了从PanIN状态（1、2和3）进展到PDAC的可能性以及PanIN发作和PDAC之间的时间（停留时间）。我们评估了一种假设的干预措施来检测和治疗PanIN 3病变，以估计PanIN检测的潜在益处。我们估计从PanIN 1进展到PDAC的终生概率为1.5%（男性），1.3%（女性）。从PanIN 1到PDAC的进展分别需要33.6年和35.3年，从PanIN 3到PDAC需要11.3年和12.3年。PanIN 3检测和治疗的假设测试可以提供40天的最大平均预期寿命增加。我们的建模分析估计PanIN具有相对惰性的PDAC过程，支持潜在的未来早期检测策略的可行性。
To gain insight into the natural history and carcinogenesis pathway of Pancreatic Intraepithelial Neoplasia (PanIN) lesions by building a calibrated simulation model of PanIN progression to pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) We revised a previously validated simulation model of solid PDAC, calibrating the model to fit data from the National Cancer Institute’s Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program and published literature on PanIN prevalence by age. We estimated the likelihood of progression from PanIN states (1, 2, and 3) to PDAC and the time between PanIN onset and PDAC (dwell time). We evaluated a hypothetical intervention to test for and treat PanIN 3 lesions to estimate the potential benefits from PanIN detection. We estimated the lifetime probability of progressing from PanIN 1 to PDAC to be 1.5% (men), 1.3% (women). Progression from PanIN 1 to PDAC took 33.6 years and 35.3 years, respectively, and from PanIN 3 to PDAC took 11.3 years and 12.3 years. A hypothetical test for PanIN 3 detection and treatment could provide a maximum, average life expectancy gain of 40 days. Our modeling analysis estimates PanINs have a relatively indolent course to PDAC, supporting the feasibility of potential future early detection strategies.
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影响因子：
64.8
作者：
Notta F;Chan-Seng-Yue M;Lemire M;Li Y;Wilson GW;Connor AA;Denroche RE;Liang SB;Brown AM;Kim JC;Wang T;Simpson JT;Beck T;Borgida A;Buchner N;Chadwick D;Hafezi-Bakhtiari S;Dick JE;Heisler L;Hollingsworth MA;Ibrahimov E;Jang GH;Johns J;Jorgensen LG;Law C;Ludkovski O;Lungu I;Ng K;Pasternack D;Petersen GM;Shlush LI;Timms L;Tsao MS;Wilson JM;Yung CK;Zogopoulos G;Bartlett JM;Alexandrov LB;Real FX;Cleary SP;Roehrl MH;McPherson JD;Stein LD;Hudson TJ;Campbell PJ;Gallinger S
通讯作者：
Gallinger S
DOI：
10.2214/ajr.07.3340
发表时间：
2008-09
期刊：
AJR. American journal of roentgenology
影响因子：
--
作者：
Laffan TA;Horton KM;Klein AP;Berlanstein B;Siegelman SS;Kawamoto S;Johnson PT;Fishman EK;Hruban RH
通讯作者：
Hruban RH
影响因子：
2.5
作者：
Cloyd, Jordan M.;Cao, Hop S. Tran;Katz, Matthew H. G.
通讯作者：
Katz, Matthew H. G.
影响因子：
2.9
作者：
Takaori, K;Hruban, RH;Tanigawa, N
通讯作者：
Tanigawa, N
影响因子：
7.7
作者：
Inadomi, JM;Sonnenberg, A
通讯作者：
Sonnenberg, A