Empirical and semi-analytical models for predicting peak outflows caused by embankment dam failures
Empirical and semi-analytical models for predicting peak outflows caused by embankment dam failures
复制标题
预测堤坝溃坝引起的洪峰流量的经验模型和半分析模型
DOI：
10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.05.049
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发表时间：
2018-07
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Liu Xin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wang Bo;Chen Yunliang;Wu Chao;Peng Yong;Song Jiajun;Liu Wenjun;Liu Xin
洪水洪峰流量的预测引起了研究人员和工程师的高度关注。本研究基于40个历史大坝溃坝数据库，建立了9个典型的非线性数学模型。通过一系列回归分析开发的前八个模型纯粹是经验性的，而最后一个模型是半解析方法，源自梯形河道溃坝洪水的解析解。将决口内底上方的水深 (Hw)、决口内底以上蓄水量 (Vw)、堤坝长度 (El) 和平均堤坝宽度 (Ew) 作为自变量，建立估算溃堤坝洪峰流量的经验公式。多元回归分析表明，使用前两个变量（即 HwandVw）的函数比使用后两个变量（即 ElandEw）产生的结果要准确得多。结果表明，半解析方法在预测精度和不确定性方面效果最好，并且除了仅使用El的模型外，建立的经验模型产生了相当合理的结果。此外，本模型已与文献中用于估计峰值放电的其他模型进行了比较。
Prediction of peak discharge of floods has attracted great attention for researchers and engineers. In present study, nine typical nonlinear mathematical models are established based on database of 40 historical dam failures. The first eight models that were developed with a series of regression analyses are purely empirical, while the last one is a semi-analytical approach that was derived from an analytical solution of dam-break floods in a trapezoidal channel. Water depth above breach invert (Hw), volume of water stored above breach invert (Vw), embankment length (El), and average embankment width (Ew) are used as independent variables to develop empirical formulas of estimating the peak outflow from breached embankment dams. It is indicated from the multiple regression analysis that a function using the former two variables (i.e.,HwandVw) produce considerably more accurate results than that using latter two variables (i.e.,ElandEw). It is shown that the semi-analytical approach works best in terms of both prediction accuracy and uncertainty, and the established empirical models produce considerably reasonable results except the model only usingEl. Moreover, present models have been compared with other models available in literature for estimating peak discharge.
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DOI：
10.1061/(asce)he.1943-5584.0000470
发表时间：
2012-03
期刊：
--
影响因子：
--
作者：
C. Thornton;Michael W. Pierce;S. Abt;V. Singh
通讯作者：
C. Thornton;Michael W. Pierce;S. Abt;V. Singh
DOI：
10.1061/(asce)0733-9496(1996)122:4(314
发表时间：
1996-07
影响因子：
3.1
作者：
Vernon K. Hagen
通讯作者：
Vernon K. Hagen
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Bo Wang;Yun-liang Chen;Chao Wu;Jianhua Dong;Xiao Ma;Jiajun Song
通讯作者：
Bo Wang;Yun-liang Chen;Chao Wu;Jianhua Dong;Xiao Ma;Jiajun Song
影响因子：
2.4
作者：
T. Wahl
通讯作者：
T. Wahl
影响因子：
2.8
作者：
Hooshyaripor, Farhad;Tahershamsi, Ahmad;Golian, Saeed
通讯作者：
Golian, Saeed