Temperature-related mortality and associated vulnerabilities: evidence from Scotland using extended time-series datasets.
Temperature-related mortality and associated vulnerabilities: evidence from Scotland using extended time-series datasets.
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DOI：
10.1186/s12940-022-00912-5
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发表时间：
2022-10-25
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
Doherty, Ruth M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wan, Kai;Feng, Zhiqiang;Hajat, Shakoor;Doherty, Ruth M.
在世界许多地方，极端气温对健康产生了不利影响。迄今为止，英国大部分此类研究都是在英格兰人群中进行的，而环境温度对苏格兰人群健康结果的影响在很大程度上仍然未知。本研究使用时间序列回归分析和分布滞后非线性模型，以验证1974-2018年期间苏格兰包括四个最大城市（阿伯丁，邓迪，爱丁堡和格拉斯哥）和三个地区的日平均环境温度与死亡率之间的急性关系。使用多变量荟萃分析汇总了个别城市和地区极端寒冷和高温下死亡风险的增加。通过比较局部温度分布的第1百分位数与第10百分位数的死亡相对风险（RR），以及第99百分位数与第90百分位数的热效应RR，总结了寒冷结果。所有城市和地区都观察到不利的寒冷影响，所有城市和地区都有明显的热影响。苏格兰的综合全因死亡风险估计在极冷和极热条件下分别增加9%（95%置信区间，CI：8%，11%）和4%（CI：3%，5%）。老年人在极冷和极热条件下的RR最高。男性比女性经历了更大的寒冷影响，而相反的是真正的热效应，特别是在老年人。在极端高温下，未婚者比已婚者的RR更高，并且在控制年龄后仍然存在这种影响。生活在最贫困地区的年轻人比生活在较不贫困地区的人受到更大的寒冷和炎热影响。呼吸道疾病造成的死亡对寒冷和高温暴露最为敏感，但心血管疾病的死亡风险也有所增加，特别是在老年人中。最近15年的寒冷影响较低，这可能与防止弱势群体遭受寒冷影响的政策和行动有关。未发现热效应的时间趋势。这项研究评估了与苏格兰极端温度相关的死亡风险，并确定了那些从有针对性的行动中受益最多的群体，以减少与寒冷和炎热相关的死亡率。 在线版本包含补充材料，可通过10.1186/s12940-022-00912-5获得。
Adverse health impacts have been found under extreme temperatures in many parts of the world. The majority of such research to date for the UK has been conducted on populations in England, whilst the impacts of ambient temperature on health outcomes in Scottish populations remain largely unknown. This study uses time-series regression analysis with distributed lag non-linear models to characterise acute relationships between daily mean ambient temperature and mortality in Scotland including the four largest cities (Aberdeen, Dundee, Edinburgh and Glasgow) and three regions during 1974–2018. Increases in mortality risk under extreme cold and heat in individual cities and regions were aggregated using multivariate meta-analysis. Cold results are summarised by comparing the relative risk (RR) of death at the 1st percentile of localised temperature distributions compared to the 10th percentile, and heat effects as the RR at the 99th compared to the 90th percentile. Adverse cold effects were observed in all cities and regions, and heat effects were apparent in all cities and regions. Aggregate all-cause mortality risk in Scotland was estimated to increase by 9% (95% confidence interval, CI: 8%, 11%) under extreme cold and 4% (CI: 3%, 5%) under extreme heat. The elderly had the highest RR under both extreme cold and heat. Males experienced greater cold effects than females, whereas the reverse was true with heat effects, particularly among the elderly. Those who were unmarried had higher RR than those married under extreme heat, and the effect remained after controlling for age. The younger population living in the most deprived areas experienced higher cold and heat effects than in less deprived areas. Deaths from respiratory diseases were most sensitive to both cold and heat exposures, although mortality risk for cardiovascular diseases was also heightened, particularly in the elderly. Cold effects were lower in the most recent 15 years, which may be linked to policies and actions in preventing the vulnerable population from cold impacts. No temporal trend was found with the heat effect. This study assesses mortality risk associated with extreme temperatures in Scotland and identifies those groups who would benefit most from targeted actions to reduce cold- and heat-related mortalities. The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12940-022-00912-5.
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影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Carder, M.;McNamee, R.;Agius, R. M.
通讯作者：
Agius, R. M.
影响因子：
2.7
作者：
CRAMER, D
通讯作者：
CRAMER, D
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Carder, M;McNamee, R;Agius, RM
通讯作者：
Agius, RM
影响因子：
3.5
作者：
BRADSHAW, J;HUTTON, S
通讯作者：
HUTTON, S
影响因子：
11.8
作者：
Arbuthnott, Katherine;Hajat, Shakoor;Vardoulakis, Sotiris
通讯作者：
Vardoulakis, Sotiris