Compound hydrometeorological extremes across multiple timescales drive volatility in California electricity market prices and emissions
Compound hydrometeorological extremes across multiple timescales drive volatility in California electricity market prices and emissions
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多个时间尺度的复合水文极端事件导致加州电力市场价格和排放量波动
DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115541
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
Characklis, Gregory W.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Su, Yufei;Kern, Jordan D.;Reed, Patrick M.;Characklis, Gregory W.
水文气象条件影响大容量电力系统和电力批发市场的运作。水流是水力发电的“燃料”，风速和太阳辐照度决定了风能和太阳能发电的可用性，气温强烈影响供暖和制冷需求。尽管人们越来越关注电力系统对水文气象不确定性的脆弱性，包括“复合”极端（多个极端同时发生），但即使不考虑气候变化，量化基线概率风险仍然很困难。在这里，我们使用新开发的电力系统仿真软件，以显示在空间和时间相关的水文气象过程的不确定性如何影响市场价格和温室气体排放量在加州的批发电力市场。结果强调需要大型合成数据集来访问罕见的，但似乎合理的系统状态，没有发生在最近的历史记录。我们发现，时间尺度强烈控制水文气象变量的组合导致极端的结果。虽然低流量和高气温造成的稀缺性长期以来一直被认为是西方电力市场的主要问题，但市场价格受到天气和流量条件的影响更深，导致电网上的能源过剩。
Hydrometeorological conditions influence the operations of bulk electric power systems and wholesale markets for electricity. Streamflow is the “fuel” for hydropower generation, wind speeds and solar irradiance dictate the availability of wind and solar power production, and air temperatures strongly affect heating and cooling demands. Despite growing concern about the vulnerability of power systems to hydrometeorological uncertainty, including “compound” extremes (multiple extremes occurring simultaneously), quantifying baseline probabilistic risks remains difficult even without factoring in climate change. Here, we use newly developed power system simulation software to show how uncertainties in spatially and temporally correlated hydrometeorological processes affect market prices and greenhouse gas emissions in California’s wholesale electricity market. Results highlight the need for large synthetic datasets to access rare, yet plausible system states that have not occurred in the recent historical record. We find that time scale strongly controls which combinations of hydrometeorological variables cause extreme outcomes. Although scarcity caused by low streamflows and high air temperatures has long been considered a primary concern in Western power markets, market prices are more profoundly impacted by weather and streamflow conditions that lead to an overabundance of energy on the grid.
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影响因子：
5.2
作者：
P. Mote;D. Rupp;Sihan Li;D. Sharp;F. Otto;P. Uhe;M. Xiao;D. Lettenmaier;H. Cullen;M. Allen
通讯作者：
P. Mote;D. Rupp;Sihan Li;D. Sharp;F. Otto;P. Uhe;M. Xiao;D. Lettenmaier;H. Cullen;M. Allen
影响因子：
5.4
作者：
E. Borgomeo;C. Farmer;Jim W Hall
通讯作者：
E. Borgomeo;C. Farmer;Jim W Hall
影响因子：
9
作者：
Zohrabian, Angineh;Sanders, Kelly T.
通讯作者：
Sanders, Kelly T.
使用自回归模型预测 Nord Pool 日前价格
影响因子：
9
作者：
T. Kristiansen
通讯作者：
T. Kristiansen
从统计物理学的角度平衡电力市场的极端价格
DOI：
10.1016/j.physa.2017.09.001
发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
M. Mureddu;H. Meyer
通讯作者：
H. Meyer