Magnitude, demographics and dynamics of the effect of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in 21 industrialized countries.
Magnitude, demographics and dynamics of the effect of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in 21 industrialized countries.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1038/s41591-020-1112-0
复制
发表时间：
2020-12
期刊：
影响因子：
82.9
通讯作者：
Ezzati M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kontis V;Bennett JE;Rashid T;Parks RM;Pearson-Stuttard J;Guillot M;Asaria P;Zhou B;Battaglini M;Corsetti G;McKee M;Di Cesare M;Mathers CD;Ezzati M
冠状病毒病2019(新冠肺炎)大流行改变了许多社会、经济、环境和医疗保健健康决定因素。我们将16个贝叶斯模型应用于生命统计数据，以估计大流行对21个工业化国家的全因死亡影响。从2020年2月中旬到5月，这些国家的死亡人数比没有大流行时多出206,000人(95%可信区间，178,100-231,000人)。在大多数国家，男性和女性之间的超额死亡人数、每10万人超额死亡人数和相对增加的死亡人数相似。英格兰、威尔士和西班牙经历了最大的影响：每10万人中约有100人额外死亡，相当于英格兰和威尔士的相对增长37%(30%-44%)，西班牙的相对增长38%(31%-45%)。保加利亚、新西兰、斯洛伐克、澳大利亚、捷克、匈牙利、波兰、挪威、丹麦和芬兰经历了死亡率的变化，从可能的小幅下降到两性5%或更低的增长。新冠肺炎大流行对死亡率的不同影响反映了各国在管理这一大流行以及卫生和社会保健系统的复原力和防备能力方面的差异。
The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has changed many social, economic, environmental and healthcare determinants of health. We applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian models to vital statistics data to estimate the all-cause mortality effect of the pandemic for 21 industrialized countries. From mid-February through May 2020, 206,000 (95% credible interval, 178,100-231,000) more people died in these countries than would have had the pandemic not occurred. The number of excess deaths, excess deaths per 100,000 people and relative increase in deaths were similar between men and women in most countries. England and Wales and Spain experienced the largest effect: ~100 excess deaths per 100,000 people, equivalent to a 37% (30-44%) relative increase in England and Wales and 38% (31-45%) in Spain. Bulgaria, New Zealand, Slovakia, Australia, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Norway, Denmark and Finland experienced mortality changes that ranged from possible small declines to increases of 5% or less in either sex. The heterogeneous mortality effects of the COVID-19 pandemic reflect differences in how well countries have managed the pandemic and the resilience and preparedness of the health and social care system.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
5.5
作者：
Basu, R;Samet, JM
通讯作者：
Samet, JM
DOI：
10.1016/s0140-6736(14)62114-0
发表时间：
2015-07-25
期刊：
Lancet (London, England)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Gasparrini A;Guo Y;Hashizume M;Lavigne E;Zanobetti A;Schwartz J;Tobias A;Tong S;Rocklöv J;Forsberg B;Leone M;De Sario M;Bell ML;Guo YL;Wu CF;Kan H;Yi SM;de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho M;Saldiva PH;Honda Y;Kim H;Armstrong B
通讯作者：
Armstrong B
影响因子：
4.4
作者：
Fowler, Tom;Southgate, Rosamund J.;Murray, Virginia
通讯作者：
Murray, Virginia
影响因子：
30.7
作者：
Bennett, James E.;Blangiardo, Marta;Ezzati, Majid
通讯作者：
Ezzati, Majid
DOI：
10.1016/s0140-6736(17)32129-3
发表时间：
2017-12-16
期刊：
Lancet (London, England)
影响因子：
--
作者：
NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC)
通讯作者：
NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC)