Climate change and risk of leishmaniasis in north america: predictions from ecological niche models of vector and reservoir species.
Climate change and risk of leishmaniasis in north america: predictions from ecological niche models of vector and reservoir species.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pntd.0000585
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发表时间：
2010-01-19
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Sarkar S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
González C;Wang O;Strutz SE;González-Salazar C;Sánchez-Cordero V;Sarkar S
气候变化越来越多地牵涉到世界各地物种分布范围的变化，包括传染病的重要病媒和宿主物种的变化。在北美洲（梅西科、美国和加拿大），利什曼病是一种病媒传播的疾病，在梅西科和得克萨斯州土生土长，并已开始向北扩展其范围。随着更多的栖息地变得适合利什曼病的媒介和宿主物种，气候变化可能会促进向北部的进一步扩张。首先，采用最大熵算法构建了两种媒介白蛉（花角沙蝇和花角沙蝇）的生态位模型。diabolica）、三种已确认的啮齿动物储库种（白腹新蛛Neotoma albigula，N. floridana和N. micropus）和一种潜在的啮齿动物储库种（N. mexicana）用于北方梅西科和美国的利什曼病。作为输入，这些模型使用物种的出现记录，地形和气候参数作为解释变量。模型进行了测试，他们的能力，以正确地预测一个指定的分数的发生点预留用于此目的和发生点，从一个独立的衍生数据集。这些模型进行了改进，以获得预测的物种的地理分布情况下，越来越严格的假设一个物种的能力，分散到合适的栖息地，并坚持在它，调制其生态适宜性。利用政府间气候变化专门委员会第三次评估报告中公开提供的内插气候数据，将成功预测的模型拟合到2020年、2050年和2080年极端A2和相对保守的B2预测气候情景。进一步的分析包括在A2和B2情景下对2020年、2050年和2080年可能接触利什曼病的预计人口的估计。所有已确认的病媒和宿主物种的潜在分布范围都将向北扩展。因此，利什曼病有可能从梅西科和美国南部向北蔓延。在美国东部，它的传播预计将受到L。diabolica;再往西，L.珊瑚虫可能起同样的作用。在东部，它甚至可能到达加拿大南部边界。A2情景的扩散风险大于B2情景。即使在后一种情况下，限制性（连续）传播的媒介和水库物种的模型，并限制媒介和水库物种的占用，只有前10%的潜在的合适的栖息地，预计到2080年暴露于利什曼病的人类个体数量将至少增加一倍，其目前的价值。这些模型预测，气候变化将加剧人类暴露于利什曼病的生态风险，在美国目前的范围之外的地区，并可能在加拿大南部的部分地区。这一预测表明，随着疾病病例向北蔓延，应采取措施，如监测德克萨斯州北部的利什曼病。除了直接干预疾病病例外，还应进一步研究潜在的病媒和水库控制战略。我们探讨了气候变化对北美利什曼病传播的影响。我们模拟了在北方梅西科和美国南部发现的两种白蛉病媒和四种啮齿类水库物种的分布。模型的基础是发生数据和环境和地形层。成功的模型使用极端（A2）和保守（B2）未来气候情景预测到2020年，2050年和2080年。我们预测潜在的范围转移的载体和水库物种不同的假设，扩散能力和能力，坚持在不同程度的生态适宜性的栖息地。即使采用最保守的假设，传病媒介和水库物种的分布也向北扩展，可能在东部远达加拿大南部。假设至少有一个载体和一个水库物种必须存在一个寄生虫周期，这种转变的程度预计将由白蛉病媒物种的适当栖息地的可用性控制。最后，我们计算了由于这些范围变化而可能暴露于利什曼病的人群。即使在最乐观的情况下，我们也发现，与今天相比，2080年北美暴露于利什曼病的人数可能会增加一倍。
Climate change is increasingly being implicated in species' range shifts throughout the world, including those of important vector and reservoir species for infectious diseases. In North America (México, United States, and Canada), leishmaniasis is a vector-borne disease that is autochthonous in México and Texas and has begun to expand its range northward. Further expansion to the north may be facilitated by climate change as more habitat becomes suitable for vector and reservoir species for leishmaniasis. The analysis began with the construction of ecological niche models using a maximum entropy algorithm for the distribution of two sand fly vector species (Lutzomyia anthophora and L. diabolica), three confirmed rodent reservoir species (Neotoma albigula, N. floridana, and N. micropus), and one potential rodent reservoir species (N. mexicana) for leishmaniasis in northern México and the United States. As input, these models used species' occurrence records with topographic and climatic parameters as explanatory variables. Models were tested for their ability to predict correctly both a specified fraction of occurrence points set aside for this purpose and occurrence points from an independently derived data set. These models were refined to obtain predicted species' geographical distributions under increasingly strict assumptions about the ability of a species to disperse to suitable habitat and to persist in it, as modulated by its ecological suitability. Models successful at predictions were fitted to the extreme A2 and relatively conservative B2 projected climate scenarios for 2020, 2050, and 2080 using publicly available interpolated climate data from the Third Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report. Further analyses included estimation of the projected human population that could potentially be exposed to leishmaniasis in 2020, 2050, and 2080 under the A2 and B2 scenarios. All confirmed vector and reservoir species will see an expansion of their potential range towards the north. Thus, leishmaniasis has the potential to expand northwards from México and the southern United States. In the eastern United States its spread is predicted to be limited by the range of L. diabolica; further west, L. anthophora may play the same role. In the east it may even reach the southern boundary of Canada. The risk of spread is greater for the A2 scenario than for the B2 scenario. Even in the latter case, with restrictive (contiguous) models for dispersal of vector and reservoir species, and limiting vector and reservoir species occupancy to only the top 10% of their potential suitable habitat, the expected number of human individuals exposed to leishmaniasis by 2080 will at least double its present value. These models predict that climate change will exacerbate the ecological risk of human exposure to leishmaniasis in areas outside its present range in the United States and, possibly, in parts of southern Canada. This prediction suggests the adoption of measures such as surveillance for leishmaniasis north of Texas as disease cases spread northwards. Potential vector and reservoir control strategies—besides direct intervention in disease cases—should also be further investigated. We explored the consequences of climate change for the spread of leishmaniasis in North America. We modeled the distribution of two sand fly vector and four rodent reservoir species found in northern México and the southern United States. Models were based on occurrence data and environmental and topographic layers. Successful models were projected to 2020, 2050, and 2080 using an extreme (A2) and a conservative (B2) future climate scenario. We predicted potential range shifts of vector and reservoir species varying assumptions about dispersal ability and capacity to persist in habitats with different degrees of ecological suitability. Even with the most conservative assumptions the distributions of both vector and reservoir species expand northwards, potentially reaching as far as southern Canada in the east. Assuming that at least one vector and one reservoir species must be present for a parasite cycle, the extent of this shift is predicted to be controlled by the availability of suitable habitat for sand fly vector species. Finally, we computed the human population potentially exposed to leishmaniasis because of these range shifts. Even in the most optimistic scenario we found that twice as many individuals could be exposed to leishmaniasis in North America in 2080 compared to today.
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影响因子：
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