Effectiveness of interventions to reduce contact rates during a simulated influenza pandemic.
Effectiveness of interventions to reduce contact rates during a simulated influenza pandemic.
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DOI：
10.3201/eid1304.060828
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发表时间：
2007-04
影响因子：
11.8
通讯作者：
Thompson WW
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Haber MJ;Shay DK;Davis XM;Patel R;Jin X;Weintraub E;Orenstein E;Thompson WW
流感大流行期间减少人与人之间接触的措施已纳入大流行应对计划中。我们使用随机模拟模型来探讨学校关闭、病人及其家庭接触者的自愿隔离以及长期护理机构 (LTCF) 居民之间的接触减少对大流行相关疾病和死亡的影响。我们的研究结果表明，如果不采取措施减少校外接触，学校停课不会对大流行相关的结果产生重大影响。然而，如果鼓励有流感样症状的人及其家庭接触者待在家里，那么患病率和死亡率可能会降低约 50%。通过防止生病的 LTCF 居民与其他居民接触，这一弱势群体的疾病和死亡可能会减少约 60%。在大流行早期限制感染者的活动可以减少对健康的负面影响。
Measures to decrease contact between persons during an influenza pandemic have been included in pandemic response plans. We used stochastic simulation models to explore the effects of school closings, voluntary confinements of ill persons and their household contacts, and reductions in contacts among long-term care facility (LTCF) residents on pandemic-related illness and deaths. Our findings suggest that school closings would not have a substantial effect on pandemic-related outcomes in the absence of measures to reduce out-of-school contacts. However, if persons with influenzalike symptoms and their household contacts were encouraged to stay home, then rates of illness and death might be reduced by ≈50%. By preventing ill LTCF residents from making contact with other residents, illness and deaths in this vulnerable population might be reduced by ≈60%. Restricting the activities of infected persons early in a pandemic could decrease negative health impact.
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发表时间：
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