Public Perceptions of Earthquake Risk and the Impact on Land Pricing: The Case of the Uemachi Fault Line in Japan

Public Perceptions of Earthquake Risk and the Impact on Land Pricing: The Case of the Uemachi Fault Line in Japan
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公众对地震风险的认知及其对土地定价的影响:以日本上町断层线为例

DOI:
10.1111/jere.12173
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发表时间:
2018
期刊:
The Japanese Economic Review
影响因子:
--
通讯作者:
Yamaga Hisaki
Yamaga Hisaki
中科院分区:
--
文献类型:
--
作者:
Gu Tao;Nakagawa Masayuki;Saito Makoto;Yamaga Hisaki

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在本文中,我们探讨土地定价如何反映公众对地震风险的看法,使用官方评估的价格位于沿着上町断层,这是在日本大坂府东部的南北轴。我们发现,土地定价沿着这条断层只纳入了故障驱动的地震风险,因为居民和决策者首先意识到其潜在的破坏兵库县南部地区在1995年1月的地震沿着六甲淡路断层(一个事件,现在被称为坂神淡路地震)。我们发现,坂神淡路地震以来,非住宅用地价格每靠近上町断层线一公里就有20%的折扣。
In this paper, we explore how land pricing reflects public perceptions of earthquake risk using officially appraised prices of land situated along the Uemachi fault, which lies on a north–south axis in the east of Japan’s Osaka Prefecture. We reveal that land pricing along this fault has only incorporated fault-driven earthquake risk since residents and policy-makers first realized its potential following damage to the southern part of Hyogo Prefecture in a January 1995 earthquake along the Rokko—Awaji fault (an event now known as the Hanshin—Awaji earthquake). We find evidence of a discount of 20% in nonresidential land prices for every kilometre closer to the Uemachi fault line since the Hanshin—Awaji earthquake.
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影响因子: --
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