Has climate change driven spatio-temporal changes of cropland in northern China since the 1970s?
Has climate change driven spatio-temporal changes of cropland in northern China since the 1970s?
复制标题
20世纪70年代以来，气候变化是否导致了中国北方耕地的时空变化？
DOI：
10.1007/s10584-014-1088-1
复制
发表时间：
2014-03
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Shi Xiaoli
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Shi Wenjiao;Tao Fulu;Liu Jiyuan;Xu Xinliang;Kuang Wenhui;Dong Jinwei;Shi Xiaoli
提高对耕地变化及其驱动因素的认识，是中国政策制定者当前关注的焦点。利用20世纪70年代至21世纪初的耕地和耕地变化数据，探讨了自20世纪70年代以来气候变化是否对中国北部的耕地产生了时空变化。热量和水资源的两个代表性指标是作物生长和生产力的重要决定因素，它们被视为跟踪气候变化的指标，包括活动积温≥10°C(AAT10)和标准化降水蒸散指数(SPPI)。结果表明，自20世纪70年代以来，中国北部地区发生了快速的耕地变化，开垦面积(1023万hm2)远大于退耕面积(294万hm2)。与1970年代、1980年代和1990年代相比，2000年代AAT10高于3000摄氏度·d的农田面积增加，而SPI大于0.25的农田面积减少。自20世纪70年代以来，气候变暖似乎为中国北部的快速开垦提供了热条件，而较干燥的气候条件并未成为农田开垦的限制因素，特别是在20世纪90年代至21世纪头10年。从1990年代到2000年代，大约70%的农田垦区位于更温暖但更干燥的地区，大约40%的农田被遗弃发生在更温暖和更潮湿的条件下，这些条件在1970年代到1980年代和1990年代到2000年代期间适合农业。研究结果表明，除社会经济因素外，气候变化也是中国北部近几十年来耕地变化的驱动因素。
Improving the understanding of cropland change and its driving factors is a current focus for policy decision-makers in China. The datasets of cropland and cropland changes from the 1970s to the 2000s were used to explore whether climate change has produced spatio-temporal changes to cropland in northern China since the 1970s. Two representative indicators of heat and water resources, which are important determinants of crop growth and productivity, were considered to track climate change, including active accumulated temperatures ≥10 °C (AAT10) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). Our results showed that rapid cropland change has occurred in northern China since the 1970s, and the area of cropland reclamation (10.23 million ha) was much greater than that of abandoned cropland (2.94 million ha). In the 2000s, the area of cropland with AAT10 higher than 3,000 °C·d increased, while the area of cropland with an SPEI greater than 0.25 decreased compared to the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. It appears that climate warming has provided thermal conditions that have aided rapid cropland reclamation in northern China since the 1970s, and drier climatic conditions did not become a limiting factor for cropland reclamation, especially from the 1990s to the 2000s. Approximately 70 % of cropland reclamation areas were located in warmer but drier regions from the 1990s to the 2000s, and approximately 40 % of cropland abandonment occurred in warmer and wetter conditions that were suitable for agriculture during the periods from the 1970s to the 1980s and the 1990s to the 2000s. Our results suggest that climate change can be considered a driving factor of cropland change in the past several decades in northern China, in addition to socioeconomic factors.
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影响因子：
3.8
作者：
S. Vicente‐Serrano;S. Beguerı́a;J. López‐Moreno;M. Angulo;A. Kenawy
通讯作者：
S. Vicente‐Serrano;S. Beguerı́a;J. López‐Moreno;M. Angulo;A. Kenawy
DOI：
10.1016/s0167-8809(02)00093-2
发表时间：
2003-04
期刊：
Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment
影响因子：
--
作者：
F. Tao;M. Yokozawa;Y. Hayashi;E. Lin
通讯作者：
F. Tao;M. Yokozawa;Y. Hayashi;E. Lin
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
Tao, Fulu;Yokozawa, Masayuki;Zhang, Zhao
通讯作者：
Zhang, Zhao
影响因子：
3.9
作者：
Epule, Terence Epule;Bryant, Christopher Robin
通讯作者：
Bryant, Christopher Robin
20 世纪 90 年代中国面貌的变化：利用卫星数据估算大规模土地变化
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Liu, JY;Tian, HQ;Zhang, ZX
通讯作者：
Zhang, ZX