Ciguatera fish poisoning and climate change: analysis of National Poison Center Data in the United States, 2001-2011.
Ciguatera fish poisoning and climate change: analysis of National Poison Center Data in the United States, 2001-2011.
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Ciguatera鱼中毒和气候变化：2001 - 2011年美国国家毒物中心数据的分析。
DOI：
10.1289/ehp.1307196
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发表时间：
2014-06
影响因子：
10.4
通讯作者：
Hess JJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gingold DB;Strickland MJ;Hess JJ
背景：暖海表温度（SSTs）与雪卡水中毒（CFP）的发生率呈正相关。剧烈风暴频率的增加可能为有毒生物创造更多的栖息地。虽然气候变化可以扩大CFP的流行范围，但CFP发病率与特定环境条件的关系尚不清楚。目的：我们估计了美国相邻地区的CFP月发生率与加勒比海盆地海温和风暴频率之间的关系。方法：我们从2001-2011年国家毒物数据系统中获得了1102个与cfp相关的美国毒物控制中心电话的信息。我们使用泊松回归进行了时间序列分析，将月CFP呼叫发生率与海温和热带风暴联系起来。我们调查了一系列看似合理的滞后结构之间的关联。结果：结果显示每月的CFP呼叫与温暖的海温和增加的热带风暴频率之间存在关联。具有最强关联的海温变量将当前月度CFP呼叫与前一年的8月海温峰值联系起来。与风暴关联最强的滞后期为18个月。如果气候变化如预估的那样在未来一个世纪使加勒比地区的海温增加2.5-3.5°C，该模式表明美国的CFP发病率可能增加200-400%。结论：使用CFP呼叫作为CFP发病率的标志，这些结果阐明了气候变率与CFP发病率之间的关联，并表明在其他条件相同的情况下，气候变化可能增加CFP的负担。这些发现对疾病预测、监测和应对气候变化的公共卫生准备具有重要意义。引用本文：Gingold DB， Strickland MJ, Hess JJ。2014. 雪卡水鱼中毒与气候变化：2001-2011年美国国家毒物中心数据分析。环境健康展望122:580-586；http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1307196
Background: Warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are positively related to incidence of ciguatera fish poisoning (CFP). Increased severe storm frequency may create more habitat for ciguatoxic organisms. Although climate change could expand the endemic range of CFP, the relationship between CFP incidence and specific environmental conditions is unknown. Objectives: We estimated associations between monthly CFP incidence in the contiguous United States and SST and storm frequency in the Caribbean basin. Methods: We obtained information on 1,102 CFP-related calls to U.S. poison control centers during 2001–2011 from the National Poison Data System. We performed a time-series analysis using Poisson regression to relate monthly CFP call incidence to SST and tropical storms. We investigated associations across a range of plausible lag structures. Results: Results showed associations between monthly CFP calls and both warmer SSTs and increased tropical storm frequency. The SST variable with the strongest association linked current monthly CFP calls to the peak August SST of the previous year. The lag period with the strongest association for storms was 18 months. If climate change increases SST in the Caribbean 2.5–3.5°C over the coming century as projected, this model implies that CFP incidence in the United States is likely to increase 200–400%. Conclusions: Using CFP calls as a marker of CFP incidence, these results clarify associations between climate variability and CFP incidence and suggest that, all other things equal, climate change could increase the burden of CFP. These findings have implications for disease prediction, surveillance, and public health preparedness for climate change. Citation: Gingold DB, Strickland MJ, Hess JJ. 2014. Ciguatera fish poisoning and climate change: analysis of National Poison Center data in the United States, 2001–2011. Environ Health Perspect 122:580–586; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1307196
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DOI：
10.1186/1476-069x-7-s2-s4
发表时间：
2008-11-07
期刊：
Environmental health : a global access science source
影响因子：
--
作者：
Moore SK;Trainer VL;Mantua NJ;Parker MS;Laws EA;Backer LC;Fleming LE
通讯作者：
Fleming LE
DOI：
10.1046/j.1526-0992.1999.09903.x
发表时间：
1999-03-01
期刊：
ECOSYSTEM HEALTH
影响因子：
--
作者：
Hales, S;Weinstein, P;Woodward, A
通讯作者：
Woodward, A
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Maue, Ryan N.
通讯作者：
Maue, Ryan N.
影响因子：
2.8
作者：
Llewellyn, Lyndon E.
通讯作者：
Llewellyn, Lyndon E.
影响因子：
2.8
作者：
Dickey, Robert W.;Plakas, Steven M.
通讯作者：
Plakas, Steven M.