Public policy and economic dynamics of COVID-19 spread: A mathematical modeling study.
Public policy and economic dynamics of COVID-19 spread: A mathematical modeling study.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0244174
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Nehorai A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Goldsztejn U;Schwartzman D;Nehorai A
随着COVID-19大流行感染数百万人，地球仪各地已颁布大规模隔离政策。为了评估隔离措施对死亡、住院和经济产出的影响，我们创建了一个数学模型来模拟COVID-19的传播，其中考虑了限制性措施的影响，并根据健康风险和经济脆弱性对人口进行了细分。政策制定者根据目前的疾病传播和经济损失水平做出隔离政策决定。在3.3亿人口的76周内，我们模拟了一个基线场景，保留强隔离限制，在疫情控制后不久迅速减少对非老年人的隔离限制，并逐步放宽对非老年人的隔离限制。我们使用76周作为疫苗上市的近似时间。在基准情景中，有235，724人死亡，经济萎缩34.0%。在迅速放松的情况下，第二次疫情爆发，525，558人死亡，经济萎缩32.3%。逐步放宽，死亡262,917人，经济萎缩29.8%。我们还表明，住院，死亡和经济产出是相当敏感的疾病传播的无症状的人。对老年人的严格限制，对非老年人的隔离逐步取消，导致有限的死亡人数和较小的经济损失。因此，我们建议采取这种减少非隔离疾病传播的策略和措施，以控制大流行，同时使隔离在经济上可行。
With the COVID-19 pandemic infecting millions of people, large-scale isolation policies have been enacted across the globe. To assess the impact of isolation measures on deaths, hospitalizations, and economic output, we create a mathematical model to simulate the spread of COVID-19, incorporating effects of restrictive measures and segmenting the population based on health risk and economic vulnerability. Policymakers make isolation policy decisions based on current levels of disease spread and economic damage. For 76 weeks in a population of 330 million, we simulate a baseline scenario leaving strong isolation restrictions in place, rapidly reducing isolation restrictions for non-seniors shortly after outbreak containment, and gradually relaxing isolation restrictions for non-seniors. We use 76 weeks as an approximation of the time at which a vaccine will be available. In the baseline scenario, there are 235,724 deaths and the economy shrinks by 34.0%. With a rapid relaxation, a second outbreak takes place, with 525,558 deaths, and the economy shrinks by 32.3%. With a gradual relaxation, there are 262,917 deaths, and the economy shrinks by 29.8%. We also show that hospitalizations, deaths, and economic output are quite sensitive to disease spread by asymptomatic people. Strict restrictions on seniors with very gradual lifting of isolation for non-seniors results in a limited number of deaths and lesser economic damage. Therefore, we recommend this strategy and measures that reduce non-isolated disease spread to control the pandemic while making isolation economically viable.
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DOI：
10.1001/jama.2016.4226
发表时间：
2016-04-26
期刊：
JAMA
影响因子：
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作者：
Chetty R;Stepner M;Abraham S;Lin S;Scuderi B;Turner N;Bergeron A;Cutler D
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影响因子：
168.9
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发表时间：
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期刊：
The annals of applied statistics
影响因子：
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作者：
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影响因子：
19
作者：
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DOI：
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发表时间：
1927-08-01
期刊：
PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF LONDON SERIES A-CONTAINING PAPERS OF A MATHEMATICAL AND PHYSICAL CHARACTER
影响因子：
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作者：
Kermack, WO;McKendrick, AG
通讯作者：
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